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自动驾驶未来成真 人类驾驶何去何从?

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自动驾驶未来成真 人类驾驶何去何从?

With a glance at the road behind him, Ben Shukman edges the car out into heavy traffic on the palm-lined streets of Las Vegas. The rain is lashing down and the glare from the city’s famous lights on the wet road make for less than ideal driving conditions.

舒克曼(Ben Shukman)瞥了一眼身后的那条路,把车开到了拉斯维加斯(Las Vegas)车水马龙棕榈树成行的街道上。大雨滂沱,这座城市著名的灯光在潮湿的路面上反射出刺眼的光芒,使得开车驾驶不那么理想。

This is the first time he has driven in the area. In fact, Shukman has never visited Vegas - and he is not there now. Although he is steering the car through the city’s busy streets, he is actually 500 miles (800km) away in Mountain View, California.

这是他第一次开车进入这个地区。事实上,舒克曼从未来过拉斯维加斯,其实现在他也不在此地。虽然他正驾驶着汽车穿过这座城市繁忙的街道,但实际上他人远在800公里之外的加州(California)山景城(Mountain View)。

Shukman is one of a handful of skilled new drivers who take control of self-driving vehicles should they get into sticky situations that the onboard computer is not able to handle.

一旦自动驾驶汽车遇到棘手情况,车上的电脑无法处理时,舒克曼是少数几个能远程操控的新驾驶员之一。

If they get stuck, the machines send an alert to a control room manned by remote operators who are monitoring the vehicles’ progress. Passengers in the vehicles can also hit a button to ask a human operator to take control remotely if driving conditions get too challenging for their liking. Currently the drivers are mainly called upon to take control of test vehicles during trials on public roads, but they are also working on active self-driving vehicles that are being used in mines, airports and other controlled locations.

如果行驶的汽车遇到问题,机器就会向控制室发出警报,控制室里有远程操作人员,他们实时监控车辆的运行情况。如果驾驶环境过于恶劣,乘客们还可以按下按钮,要求操作人员远程控制车辆。目前,这些遥控司机主要工作是控制在公共道路上进行测试的自动驾驶汽车,但他们也操作已用于矿山、机场和其他受控制地点的自动驾驶车辆。

As more self-driving vehicles appear on roads around the world, it is a job that is likely to become increasingly important.

随着越来越多的自动驾驶汽车出现在世界各地的道路上,这项工作会变得越来越重要。

“This is a new form of driving,” says Shukman, who is employed by Phantom Auto, a small company specialising in teleoperation safety technology. “But it quickly becomes second nature. At the moment professional drivers have to spend days and even weeks away from home. I see this role evolving into more of a full-time office job in the future. We can have control centres where hundreds of remote operators will come to work, close to where they live. It could totally transform the work-life balance of professional drivers.”

舒克曼任职于幻影汽车(Phantom Auto),一家专门从事远程操作安全技术的小公司。他说:“这是一种新的驾驶方式,但很快就变成了我的第二天性。目前,职业司机不得不几天甚至几周离家工作。我认为这个新角色在未来会逐渐变成全职的办公室工作。我们可以建立控制中心,数百名远程操作员将在那里工作,离他们居住的地方很近。它可以彻底改变职业司机工作与生活的平衡。”

While less than a decade ago self-driving cars may have seemed like science fiction, a number of major technology companies and car manufacturers are testing autonomous vehicles in trials on public roads around the world. Google was the first major company to begin sending robotic vehicles out on public roads around California, but traditional car firms including Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, General Motors, BMW and Volkswagen have now developed self-driving systems of their own. Other firms like Amazon, Pizza Hut and the online supermarket Ocado have been investigating using self-driving vehicles to make deliveries.

虽然不到10年前,无人驾驶汽车似乎还只是科幻小说,但现在一些大型科技公司和汽车制造商正在世界各地的公共道路上测试无人驾驶汽车。谷歌(Google)是第一家开始将机器人汽车开上加州公共道路上的大公司,而福特(Ford)、捷豹路虎(Jaguar Land Rover)、通用汽车(General Motors)、宝马(BMW)和大众(Volkswagen)等传统汽车公司现在已经开发了自己的自动驾驶系统。亚马逊(Amazon)、必胜客(Pizza Hut)和网上超市奥凯多(Ocado)等其他公司也在研究使用自动驾驶汽车送货。

But there have been setbacks too – the computer vision technology used by Tesla in its semi-autonomous technology has been implicated in at least one serious accident. Earlier this year Uber suspended its self-driving operations after an accident led to the death of a pedestrian. Most recently Apple’s self-driving car was involved in a minor accident.

但也有一些挫折。特斯拉(Tesla)半自动驾驶技术中使用的电脑视觉技术至少造成一起严重事故。今年早些时候,优步(Uber)在自动汽车发生车祸导致一名行人死亡后,暂停了自动驾驶业务。最近,苹果(Apple)的自动驾驶汽车也发生一次小车祸。

While these incidents mean the industry still has significant hurdles to overcome, the momentum seems unstoppable. Between 40% and 95% of car journeys will be done in autonomous vehicles by 2030, according to different analyses. Ford says it plans to have fully autonomous vehicles with no steering wheel or accelerator on the roads as early as 2021.

尽管这些车祸意味着该行业仍有重大障碍需要克服,但自动汽车势头似乎不可阻挡。根据不同的分析,到2030年,40%到95%的汽车出行将由自动驾驶汽车完成。福特表示,该公司计划最早于2021年让没有方向盘或油门的完全自动驾驶汽车上路。

Most projections suggest autonomous vehicles will lead to widespread unemployment for the millions of professional drivers who transport goods and people. According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, for example, as many as 25,000 jobs could be lost a month in the US as self-driving vehicles replace truckers, taxi drivers and public transport workers. The International Transport Forum predicts there could be a 50-70% reduction in demand for professional truck drivers in the US and Europe by 2030 due to the technology.

多数预测表明,自动驾驶汽车将导致数以百万计从事货运和客运的专业司机大批失业。例如,根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)的估计,随着自动驾驶汽车取代卡车司机、出租车司机和公共交通车司机,美国一个月可能会损失多达2.5万个就业岗位。国际运输论坛(International Transport Forum)预测,由于这项技术,到2030年,美国和欧洲对专业卡车司机的需求可能会减少50%至70%。

But other analysis suggests the majority of these job losses are not likely to be felt until 2030 and will be mitigated by new job creation. Roles such as those being performed by Shukman and his colleagues will become increasingly in demand. Analysis by Uber also sees the number of trucking jobs increasing as the focus shifts from humans doing long-haul driving to local delivery.

但其他分析显示,这些失业危机大多数要到2030年才有可能感受到,而新的就业机会将会缓解这种情况。像舒克曼和他的同事所扮演的角色将会越来越受欢迎。优步的分析还发现,随着货运从长途驾驶转向本地送货,货车运输岗位的数量也会增加。

But autonomous vehicles will bring new roles too.

而且自动驾驶汽车也将带来新的工作岗位。

“We expect that the transportation sector will have an increase in jobs that require directly interfacing with customers of autonomous vehicles, particularly for consumers who are older or disabled,” says Amitai Bin-Nun, vice president of autonomous vehicles and mobility innovation at the US think-tank Securing America's Future Energy. Drivers would be freed up to focus on customer service, including helping passengers in and out of vehicles, or offering them onboard services. Workers will also be needed to maintain large fleets of technologically-advanced vehicles. “It is also likely that there may be many high-skilled jobs created to develop autonomous vehicle technology and find new applications for its use,” adds Bin-Nun.

美国智库“保障美国未来能源安全”(Securing America's Future Energy)的自动驾驶汽车和移动创新副总裁宾努(Amitai Bin-Nun)说:“我们预计,交通行业将增加需要与自动驾驶汽车的客户直接接触的就业岗位,特别是对年龄较大或残疾的客户。”司机将被解放出来,专注于客户服务,比如帮助乘客上下车,或为他们提供车上服务。还需要工人为技术先进的大型车队做维护工作。宾努补充说,“可能还会有许多高技能的工作岗位被创造出来,以开发自动驾驶汽车技术,并为其使用找到新的应用。”

Car manufacturers and other firms active in the field are already searching for those with the skills needed to put self-driving vehicles safely on public roads. While trials are underway around the world, they are still strictly controlled and require humans to sit behind the wheel, ready to step in at a moment’s notice.

汽车制造商和其他在这一领域活跃的公司已经在寻找那些具备让自动驾驶汽车安全上路所需技术的人员。尽管世界各地的试验都在进行中,但自动汽车仍受到严格控制,需要人坐在方向盘后面,随时准备人手介入。

According to recruitment firm ZipRecruiter, the number of job adverts in the autonomous driving sector has increased by 27% year on year, with a 250% jump in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the same time last year. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders also estimates that autonomous vehicles could result in an additional 320,000 jobs being created in the UK alone.

据招聘公司ZipRecruiter的数据,自动驾驶行业的招聘广告数量年同比增长27%,2018年第二季度较去年同期猛增了250%。汽车制造商和贸易商协会(Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders)还估计,仅在英国,自动驾驶汽车就能增加32万个就业岗位。

“The industry is going to need an army of people to develop these autonomous systems,” says Graeme Smith, chief executive of Oxbotica, a UK company testing self-driving vehicles. “We will need engineers who can make them work, testing them, validating them and certifying the technology. Then we will need new product designers, as everything will be done differently compared to today if humans are not in the loop.”

测试自动驾驶汽车的英国公司Oxbotica的首席执行官史密斯(Graeme Smith)说:“汽车行业将需要大批人才来开发自动驾驶系统。我们需要能够让自动汽车运行、并作测试、验证并证明这种技术的工程师。然后我们将需要新的产品设计师,因为如果人类不参与其中,所有的设计都将与今天不同。”

What Smith is referring to is the radical change in vehicle design that is likely to accompany self-driving cars. The way people interact and control their vehicles has remained largely unchanged for decades. But with pedals, gear sticks and steering wheels redundant, what will be the best way to interact with the onboard computer and tell it where you want to go?

史密斯所说是指可能伴随自动驾驶汽车而来的汽车设计的根本性变化。几十年来,人与车的互动和人控制车辆的方式基本上没有多大变化。但是,如果踏板、变速杆和方向盘都是多余的,那么人与车载电脑的互动,及告诉电脑你的目的地的最佳方式会是什么呢?

ZipRecruiter predicts a wide range of new jobs could appear as companies start to adopt self-driving vehicles. Engineers proficient in autonomous navigation and robotics will be essential, it says, as will technicians capable of repairing vehicles that break down. “Autonomous driving is going to be at least as big as today’s engine industry,” adds Smith.

ZipRecruiter预计,随着企业开始采用自动驾驶汽车,将出现大量新的工作岗位。精通自主导航和机器人技术的工程师和能够修理故障车辆的技术人员将必不可少。史密斯补充道,“自动驾驶行业的规模至少将与今天的发动机行业一样大。”

The global automobile engine industry is worth around $301bn and employs around 1.6 million people. But there are some who believe that the impact of autonomous vehicles could be greater still. The World Economic Forum predicts that the automotive industry could grow by up to $144bn within the next 10 years thanks to self-driving vehicles, while a report by microchip company Intel, which is working with BMW on self-driving cars, estimates autonomous vehicles could be worth up to $7 trillion to global economies by 2050.

全球汽车发动机产业价值约3010亿美元,员工人数约为160万。但有些人认为,自动驾驶汽车的影响可能会更大。世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)预测,由于无人驾驶汽车,未来10年,汽车行业的增长可能高达1440亿美元,而正与宝马公司合作研发自动驾驶汽车的微芯片公司英特尔(Intel)的一份报告预计,到2050年,自动驾驶汽车在全球经济中的价值可能高达7万亿美元。

Much of this value, according to Intel, will come from new occupations that will emerge around the self-driving car industry, delivering something it calls the “passenger economy”. This will create jobs such as managers capable of overseeing vast fleets of self-driving taxis or goods-delivery vehicles. It is something Bin-Nun agrees with.

根据英特尔的说法,这些价值大部分将来自围绕自动驾驶汽车行业出现的新行业,它们将带来一种被称为“客运经济”(passenger economy)的东西。这将创造一些工作岗位,比如能够监督大量自动驾驶出租车或货物运输车辆的管理人员。宾努也认同这一看法。

“As autonomous vehicles are likely to foster a transition to individuals travelling in vehicles owned by fleets rather than independently owned, these fleets will require programming, maintenance, consumer support and monitoring. These all represent significant opportunities for job growth at all skill-levels.”

“由于自动驾驶汽车很可能带来一种转变,比如个人外出会租用商业车队拥有的车辆而不是个人拥有的汽车,这些车队将需要编程、维护、用户服务和监控等工作。这些都意味有关自动汽车的所有技术层面都会有就业增长的显著机会。”
 

汽车制造商和贸易商协会也预计,仅在英国,自动驾驶汽车就能增加32万个就业岗位

But Intel also sees jobs being created for those who can provide innovative goods and services for the newly-idle former motorists during their journeys. Demand for coffees and snacks will increase, as will the need for in-vehicle digital entertainment and even manicures while on-the-move. Then there is the need for planners, architects and engineers capable of creating the new road infrastructure that self-driving cars will need.

而英特尔也看到,对于那些能够为旅途中刚刚清闲下来的前驾车者提供创新商品和服务的人,也将有新的就业机会。对咖啡和零食的需求将会增加,需求同样增加的还有车载数码娱乐,甚至是旅途中的美甲服务。此外,还需要有能力建造自动驾驶汽车所需的新道路基础设施的规划师、建筑师和工程师。

But demand for drivers is not likely to die out any time soon either.

而且司机的工作也不会很快消失一空。

“We want people who are experienced, expert drivers,” says Elliot Katz, chief executive of Phantom Auto, which provides remote operators for many of the leading manufacturers developing autonomous vehicles. “Autonomous vehicles in the future are not going to have any manual controls for passengers to take over with. So that is where remote operators will come in and their skills are going to be in great demand.”

幻影汽车首席执行官卡茨(Elliot Katz)说:“我们需要的是经验丰富、专业的司机。”该公司现为许多开发自动驾驶汽车的领先制造商提供远程操作人员。他说:“自动驾驶汽车在未来不会有任何手动控制让乘客接管。因此,远程操作人员将会进入这个领域,他们的技能将会有很大需求。”

For Shukman, it is an unusual job that comes with a lot of responsibility. “It is fascinating and fun to be driving in a place I have never physically been to,” he says. “But at the end of the day I am responsible for the safety of the vehicle and its occupants. This focuses the mind, knowing people are relying on me.”

对舒克曼来说,这是一份不同寻常的工作,需要承担很多责任。他说:“在一个我从没实际去过的地方开车既吸引人又有趣。但在一天结束的时候,我要负责车辆和车上乘客的安全。这让我全神贯注,因为我知道人们在依赖我。”

And at the end of his shift, how does he feel about getting into his old-fashioned, manually controlled car?

在他的轮班结束后,他坐进了他那辆老式的、手动控制的汽车。对此他作何感受?

“Driving through this new perspective has added to my awareness on the road,” he says. “It has made me a safer driver.”

他说:“通过这种新的视角开车,增加了我在路上的警觉度。这让我成为了一个更安全的司机。”
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