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和机器人抢工作 人类有哪些优势无法取代?

Humanics: A way to ‘robot-proof’ your career?
和机器人抢工作 人类有哪些优势无法取代?

As artificial intelligence becomes both more useful and more widespread, workers everywhere are becoming anxious about how a new age of automation might affect their career prospects.

人工智能越来越有益处,并且广泛应用,世界各地的人们开始担心,自动化的新时代会如何影响自己的职业前景。

A recent study by Pew Research found that in 10 advanced and emerging economies, most workers expect computers will do much of the work currently done by humans within 50 years. Workers are clearly anxious about the effects on the job market of artificial intelligence and automation.

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research)最近的一项研究发现,在10个发达和新兴经济体国家中,大部分从业者预计,目前很多由人类完成的工作,将在50年内被计算机取代。人们普遍对人工智能和自动化给就业市场带来的影响感到担忧。

Estimates about how much of the workforce could be automated vary from about 9% to 47%. The consultancy McKinsey estimates up to 800 million workers globally could be displaced by robotic automation by 2030. Some jobs will change dramatically, while others will disappear altogether.

关于多少岗位会被自动化取代,预计的情况各不相同,从大约9%到47%不等。咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)预计,到2030年,全球会有多达8亿的工作岗位被机器人代替。一些岗位会发生重大改变,而另一些职位将会彻底消失。

So if automation makes the job market a little like a game of musical chairs, is there a way to make sure you’re still employed when the music stops? Can education help you robot-proof your career?

如果自动化让就业市场变得像一场抢椅子游戏,有没有办法能够确保人们在职业生涯中保住饭碗?教育能否防止自己被机器人取代?

Future-proofing your career is less about picking a safe job and more about constantly updating your skills throughout your career, according to Northeastern University president Joseph Aoun, who wrote Robot-Proof: Higher Education in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.

美国的东北大学(Northeastern University)校长、《防范机器人:人工智能时代的高等教育》(Robot-Proof: Higher Education in the Age of Artificial Intelligence)的作者奥恩(Joseph Aoun)介绍:要防止工作被机器人取代,就要在职业中不断更新自己的技能,而不是选择一份安稳的工作。

He says education needs to change dramatically if workers are to adapt to this new environment. His solution, which he calls humanics, has three basic pillars:

他说,人们要适应这种新环境,教育必须改革。他给出了人类主导学说(humanics)的解决方案,有三个基本方面:

Technical ability: understanding how machines function and how to interact with them. As both artificial intelligence and robotics become ever more capable, machines will step into roles once monopolised by humans. Some employees won't last, but others will find themselves working with machines, and probably being vastly more productive as a result. Workers with a grounding in coding and engineering principles will be better placed to thrive in this new kind of workplace.

提高技术能力:了解机器的运转原理,知道如何与机器互动。随着人工智能和机器人变得愈发强大,机器将进入人类所有工作中。一些员工要被机器取代,另一些员工要与机器合作,并且效率会因此大大提升。有编程和工程原理基础技能的人们更容易在这种新的工作中取得成功。

Data discipline: navigating the sea of information that's generated by these machines. Workers will need data literacy to read, analyse and use the almost bottomless troves of information that are increasingly guiding everything from major business decisions to stock picks to purchasing decisions.

掌握数据运用:在这些机器生成的数据里工作。人们需要具备数据知识,才能看懂、分析和利用庞大的信息库。这些数据逐渐开始指导一切,不管是重大商业决策、投资股票,还是日常采购。

And the human discipline: "which is what we humans can do that machines for the foreseeable future, cannot emulate.” Aoun says this includes creativity, cultural agility, empathy and the ability to take information from one context and apply it to another. In educational terms, this means less emphasis on the classroom and a greater emphasis on experiential learning.

增强人类特有优势:只有人类能够做到,未来机器也无法模仿的事情。奥恩说,这也就是人类的创造力、灵活性和同理心,以及在一种情景下获取信息,并将其运用到另一情景中去的能力。就教育而言,课堂传授知识性的教育不再那么重要,更重要的是体验式学习。
 

自动化和人工智能不仅会影响技能水平较低的劳动者,连法律和会计等行业也会受到影响

The World Economic Forum suggests many white-collar jobs, like accounting, will be at risk from future automation, while the OECD says low-skilled jobs will be most vulnerable and there’ll still be a strong correlation between education and income. Either way, skills are becoming outdated faster than ever before.

世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)称,类似会计等很多白领工作,将在未来面临自动化取代的风险,但经济合作与发展组织(OECD)则认为,低技能工作更容易受到影响,并且教育与收入密切相关。无论如何,技能更新换代的速度在当今比以往任何时候都快。

“A generation ago, the half-life of a skill was about 26 years, and that was the model for a career. Today, it’s four and half years and dropping,” says Indranil Roy, the head of the Future of Work Centre of Excellence, set up by global consultancy Deloitte.

跨国咨询公司德勤(Deloitte)创立的未来工作卓越中心(Future of Work Centre of Excellence)负责人罗伊(Indranil Roy)说:“上个年代,一项技能大概能持续26年,也是一项事业的循环模式。如今变成了4年半,并且还在不断缩短。”

Aoun says the rapid pace of change isn’t necessarily a negative, but it does mean you’ll probably never outgrow homework. It also means universities will need to shift their focus towards lifelong education and training mid-career workers.

奥恩表示,变化速度快不一定是坏事,但这意味着你可能永远都要学习。同时,大学必须把重点转向终身教育和对职业中期员工的培训上。

“We’re constantly becoming obsolete. And in some ways that’s an enormous opportunity for us all to re-educate ourselves and update ourselves. Those that are able to do it will be able to flourish,” he says.

他说:“我们会经常发现自己落后了。某种程度上来说,这也是一个巨大的机会,可以接受再教育,更新自己的知识技能。只有做到不断学习的人才能够取得成功。”

Aoun worries that the tertiary education system currently isn’t equipped for this new reality. He says many universities are far too focused on four-year undergraduate courses and academic research.

奥恩担心,目前的高等教育制度不适合这个新的现实。他说,很多大学太过重视四年本科课程和学术研究。

Equally important to helping students graduate, he says, is helping students master “the human discipline”. The solution is a much greater emphasis on real-world experience. That might mean taking a job or a long-term internship while studying. In addition to career experience, this gives students the life-skills to negotiate and interact with colleagues.

他说,帮助学生掌握“人类主导学说”和帮助学生毕业同等重要。解决办法是:着重强调对现实社会所需的技能。这需要一边上学一边工作或长期实习。除工作经验外,还要让学生掌握与同事沟通和互动所需的实际技能。

“It also allows you to see opportunities and see gaps, and this is where you can say ‘I’m going to start a company or a not-for-profit’,” he says.

“这还能够让你有更多的机会和空间说:‘我要创办一家公司或一个非营利机构。’”

Roy agrees that less-tangible life skills are becoming more important to many employers. He says some of Deloitte’s “more progressive” clients use artificial intelligence for skills like analytics, freelancers for deep technical skills and only fully employ people with “life skills” and values that align closely with the organisation. But he points out those are skills that mostly come from outside a university environment.

罗伊也认为,对很多员工来说,无形的生活技能正变得更加重要。他说,德勤一些“更先进”的客户使用的分析类技能来自人工智能,高端的技术技能来自自由职业者,公司只雇佣具备“生活技能”且价值观与公司一致的全职人员。但他指出,这些技能大部分来自大学之外的学习。

McKinsey suggests that by 2030, the workforce will spend 55% more time using technical skills than in 2016. The World Economic Forum, meanwhile, foresees a net gain in employment from automation, with some jobs killed off but more created.

麦肯锡称,到2030年,人们使用技术技能的时间将比2016年增加55%。与此同时,世界经济论坛预测,来自自动化的就业会出现增长,一些岗位会消失,也会有更多新增岗位。

Roy says that probably means a workplace in which robots work alongside humans – for example, he says some of Deloitte’s clients have AI systems that attend and participate in meetings.

罗伊说,这说明机器人在劳动力大军中与人类并肩协作。比如,德勤的部分客户已经有了出席和参与会议的人工智能系统。

Aoun agrees that it’s important to understand our changing our relationship with machines in the workplace, and to adapt education accordingly.

奥恩也认为,了解职场上人类与机器人之间不断变化的关系,并对教育做出相应的调整很重要。

“In the same way that once we have self-driving cars, clearly teaching driving will be transformed. So technology is going to make certain fields obsolete, but it’s not going to make humans obsolete,” he says.

他说:“这与有了自动驾驶汽车,就要换一种方式教人开车是一个道理。所以说技术会淘汰某些领域,但不会淘汰人类。”

Perhaps above all, Aoun says humans need to focus on skills that are harder for artificial intelligence to replicate. Specifically, that means taking knowledge from one context or discipline and applying it to another. Humanics itself is about combining three separate disciplines.

更重要的是,人类必须把重点放在人工智能难以效仿的能力上。具体来说,是获取一种情景或学科的知识,并将其应用到另一种情景中。人类主导学说就是将这三个方面结合起来。

“We humans are creative, innovative, entrepreneurial. We are able to interact with other people, work with them, be empathetic. We are able to be culturally agile, work with people with different backgrounds. We are able to be global,” he said.

“我们人类有创造能力、创新能力和创业精神。我们能够与他人互动、合作,有同理心。能够在文化上保持灵活性,能与全球不同背景的人合作。”

Roy says universities, particularly in the US, Canada and Australia, are increasingly focusing on interdisciplinary studies. However, tertiary institutions in other countries are still a little more traditional in their approach.

罗伊说,在大学,尤其是美国、加拿大和澳大利亚的大学,越来越重视跨学科教育。但是,其他国家的高等教育在方式上仍然比较传统。

Technology is constantly upending our expectations, with change the only certainty. Roy says he is “surprised every day” at the barriers machines are breaking.

科技不断颠覆我们的预期,变化是唯一可以确定的事。机器打破的障碍“每天都让他感到惊讶”。

So perhaps it’s not enough to help workers survive a musical chairs-style job market. Maybe they also need to survive in one where all the chairs are constantly moving.

所以说,只帮助人们在抢椅子游戏这样的就业市场中生存下来是不够的。人们可能还需要在一个所有椅子都在不断移动的就业市场中生存下来。
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