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在战争边缘,美国和伊朗似乎各退了一步

At the Edge of a War, the U.S. and Iran Appear to Step Back
在战争边缘,美国和伊朗似乎各退了一步

WASHINGTON — After the United States and Iran stormed to the edge of a cliff this week, early indications suggest that the two countries apparently have decided they do not want to jump, at least not yet.

华盛顿——自美国和伊朗本周冲上悬崖边缘之后,目前初步迹象表明,两国看来已决定勒马,至少目前是这样。

With initial battle assessments indicating that no Americans were killed in Iranian strikes on two military bases in Iraq early Wednesday, President Trump may not feel the punch-back-or-lose-face pressure he would have confronted with high troop casualties.

初步战斗评估显示,周三凌晨,伊朗对伊拉克的两个军事基地发动的袭击没有造成美国人死亡,特朗普总统可能不会感受到大量美军伤亡时可能面临的那种“不打回去就要丢脸”的压力。

Iran’s foreign minister announced after the attacks that the nation had “concluded proportionate measures” in its retaliation for the killing of the country’s most revered military general in an American drone strike last week.

发起袭击后,伊朗外长宣布该国已“采取适当措施”,报复美国上周通过无人机袭击杀死本国最受尊敬的将军。

Mr. Trump, speaking from the White House on Wednesday morning, repeated a pledge to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon — but did not order additional use of force. He vowed to impose more sanctions but also said that “the United States is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it.”

特朗普周三上午在白宫发表讲话时重申了阻止伊朗获得核武器的决心,但没有下令进一步使用武力。他发誓要实施更多制裁,但也表示,“美国愿意与所有想要和平的国家和平相处。”

But with Iran’s leadership demanding anew that the United States leave the region, it is expected that attacks by Tehran’s proxy forces will continue. Iran’s leadership can also, at a time of its choosing, decide whether to launch additional, asymmetrical strikes, especially cyberattacks, against Western interests. And that could bring both countries back to the edge of the cliff.

但是,随着伊朗领导层再次要求美国离开该地区,预计德黑兰代理武装的攻击将会持续。伊朗领导层也可以在自己选择的时间,决定是否针对西方利益发动更多的非对称打击,尤其是网络攻击。这可能把两国带回悬崖边缘。

There was visible relief among some officials at the Pentagon that the highway to a larger war on which the administration appeared to be speeding may have provided an off-ramp.

五角大楼的一些官员显然如释重负,此前美国政府似乎正在迅速走向一场规模更大的战争,如今这条路上出现了一个出口。

For all of the public chest-thumping in the last week, both sides took measures to de-escalate.

尽管上周都发表了各种公开抨击,双方目前采取了缓解紧张局势的措施。

Before the strikes on the bases in Iraq, Iran made clear that it would launch retaliatory attacks and that they would come from the official Iranian military, not proxy groups. The United States, for its part, was monitoring Iranian communications and had plenty of time to prepare to protect American troops in Iraq.

在对伊拉克基地发动攻击之前,伊朗曾明确表示将发动报复性攻击,而且将来自伊朗政府军,而不是代理人组织。而美国一直在监控伊朗的通讯,有充足的时间来准备驻伊美军的防御。

By the end of a long night Tuesday, there was a collective exhaling in the Trump administration’s national security apparatus, and officials indicated that they believed things had been contained, for now.

周二,在漫长的一晚结束后,特朗普政府国家安全机构都长出了一口气,官员们表示,他们认为事情暂时得到了控制。

One administration official said the hope now was for de-escalation. “So far, so good,” Mr. Trump said on Twitter.

一位政府官员表示,现在有望缓和紧张局势。“目前为止,一切顺利,”特朗普在Twitter上说。

Though Iranian officials said their military response had ended, American troops in the region continued to fortify their positions in case of another attack, one military officer in Baghdad said.

尽管伊朗官员表示,他们的军事回应已经结束,但驻巴格达的一名美国军官说,该地区的美军仍在继续加强阵地,以防再次袭击。
 

周二,人们在德黑兰为卡西姆·苏莱曼尼少将举行烛光守夜活动。

A war with Iran would look nothing like any conflict this generation has witnessed, national security and military experts say. It would be felt aboard oil tankers making their way through the Strait of Hormuz and at gas stations in Kansas, in hotels and public plazas in Paris, and in the mosques in the United Arab Emirates.

国家安全和军事专家表示,与伊朗的战争将不同于这一代人所目睹的任何冲突。在穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮上、在堪萨斯州的加油站、在巴黎的酒店和广场上、在阿拉伯联合酋长国的清真寺里,人们都将感受到它的存在。

As budget-shattering and far-reaching as the war with Iraq has been, one with Iran would be far worse.

与伊朗的战争会和伊拉克战争同样耗资巨大、影响深远,但要糟糕得多。

Any assumption that the Iranian people would welcome an American toppling of their government does not take into account the deep pride that many Iranians have in their national identity, an outpouring that has surfaced in the stampede in Iran during Tuesday’s funeral procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the Iranian military commander killed in an American airstrike last week, experts said. More than 50 people died as millions flooded the streets to mourn him.

如果有人认为伊朗人民会欢迎美国推翻他们的政府,那是没有考虑到很多伊朗人对自己的国民身份存在多么深的自豪感,专家说,周二,为上周丧生于美国空袭的伊朗军事指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼(Qassim Suleimani)举行的葬礼已经可以看到这种自豪感的爆发。葬礼上发生踩踏事件,数百万人涌上街头悼念苏莱曼尼,导致50多人丧生。

“Iranians are nationalistic and would view this as a war being imposed upon them by someone who they see as deliberately picking a fight with them,” said Vali R. Nasr, an Iranian-American and a former senior adviser at the State Department. “And they would support hitting back.”

“伊朗人是民族主义者,他们会认为这是一场强加给他们的战争,是有人故意挑衅他们,”伊朗裔美国人、前国务院高级顾问瓦利·R·纳斯尔(Vali R. Nasr)说。“他们会支持反击。”

Early Wednesday, Iran said it had finished the official hitting-back phase for now.

周三早些时候,伊朗表示,已经完成了这一阶段的正式反击。

“Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched,” Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said in a tweet. “We do not seek escalation or war but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”

“对于针对我们的公民和高级官员发动的懦弱武装袭击,伊朗根据《联合国宪章》第51条采取并完成了相应的自卫措施,”伊朗外交部长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫(Mohammad Javad Zarif)在Twitter上表示,“我们不寻求升级或战争,但将保卫自己不受任何侵略。”

In the tense days leading up to the airstrikes, American officials were looking into the abyss of what a war with Iran could look like. One thing became immediately clear: It would be nothing like the major conflicts the United States has fought in places like Iraq and Afghanistan over the past several decades.

在空袭之前的紧张日子里,美国官员正在研究与伊朗的战争可能会是什么样子。有一点很快明确起来:这将与美国过去几十年在伊拉克和阿富汗等地的主要冲突截然不同。

Officials had long ago ruled out a land invasion to occupy Iran. The country is nearly four times the size of Iraq, and its population of more than 80 million would not be expected to wave the welcome flag.

官员们早已排除了入侵伊朗、占领其土地的可能性。这个国家的面积几乎是伊拉克的四倍,8000多万国民估计不会挥舞旗帜欢迎美军。

Instead, military officials said they expected any major conflict would be waged with a series of airstrikes, naval strikes and, most likely, cyberstrikes, with few if any American boots on the ground.

相反,军方官员表示,他们预计任何重大冲突都将通过一系列空袭和海上打击进行,极有可能还有网络打击,但美国几乎不会派遣地面部队。

What most likely would unfold are airstrikes against Iranian warships and the country’s cruise and ballistic missile sites and depots, and other elements of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Quds Force, which General Suleimani led. American warplanes and missile-firing drones could also attack oil refineries, the oil distribution network and power grids. Much harder targets include Iran’s nuclear facilities, the most important of which are buried deep underground.

最有可能的是对伊朗的军舰、巡航导弹和弹道导弹基地和仓库,以及伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps)的其他部队和曾由苏莱曼尼指挥的圣城军(Quds Force)进行空袭。美国战斗机和发射导弹的无人机还可以攻击炼油厂、石油分销网络和电网。更困难的目标包括伊朗的核设施,其中最重要的设施深埋地下。

American officials familiar with classified war planning say the goal would not be to oust the government and take over Iran — unlike with the Taliban in Afghanistan or President Saddam Hussein in Iraq — but to cripple its military, including the Quds Force; eliminate its nuclear programs; and choke off what Washington describes as Tehran’s malign regional influence.

熟悉秘密战争计划的美国官员表示,和对阿富汗的塔利班或伊拉克的萨达姆·侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)总统不同的是,美国的目标不是推翻伊朗政府并接管伊朗,而是削弱其军队,包括圣城军;同时消除其核项目;并遏制德黑兰在该地区的影响力,在华盛顿看来,这种影响是有害的。

But war-gaming those events immediately raised the potential pitfalls.

但对这些事件的战棋推演中很快发现了可能的困难。

Iran can hit back, as the country demonstrated this week. It could strike Saudi Arabian oil refineries or shut down the Strait of Hormuz by sinking a tanker or two or mining the waterway. That would send the price of oil and gas skyrocketing, and hobble the global economy.

伊朗可以反击,正如该国本周所展示的那样。它可以袭击沙特阿拉伯的炼油厂,或通过击沉一两艘油轮或在航道上布雷来关闭霍尔木兹海峡。这将导致石油和天然气价格飙升,并拖累全球经济。

“A conflict with Iran would look very different from the past 19 years of conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan, or should,” said David A. Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who planned the American air campaigns in Afghanistan in 2001 and in the Persian Gulf in 1991.

“与伊朗的冲突看上去会与过去19年在伊拉克和阿富汗的冲突大不相同,或者说理应不同,”退役空军三星上将戴维·A·德普图拉(David A. Deptula)说。

“We have a lot of options to bring the pain,” added Derek Chollet, an assistant secretary of defense under President Barack Obama. “But so do they, especially by targeting our facilities in the gulf or Iraq.”

“我们有很多让他们难受的办法,”贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统任内的助理国防部长德雷克·夏勒特(Derek Chollet)说。“但他们也是这样,尤其是可以针对我们在海湾或伊拉克的设施。”

Mr. Chollet cautioned that administration officials “should not be deluded into thinking that if we were to hit a few regime targets” that Iranian leaders “will simply fold up and start negotiating.”

夏勒特警告说,美国政府官员“不应误以为,如果我们打击几个政权内的目标”,伊朗领导人“就会屈服,开始谈判”。

“Iran is not 10 feet tall,” he said, “but we have to expect they will be very resilient.”

“伊朗不是10英尺高的巨人,”他说,“但我们也要预计到他们是有韧性的。”

Unlike enemies in Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran is certain to fight asymmetrically, potentially striking American targets such as embassies or military bases through proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon or elsewhere in the Middle East and Europe. And Iran has competent cyberwar capabilities, as well.

与在阿富汗和伊拉克的敌人不同,伊朗肯定会进行非对称打击,可能会通过伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩或中东和欧洲其他地方的代理武装,打击美国的大使馆或军事基地等目标。而伊朗也拥有强大的网络战争能力。

While Iraq would probably be the main theater in the beginning of the war, that would most likely change quickly as Iranian proxies deployed around the region and the world.

虽然伊拉克可能是战争开始时的主战场,但随着伊朗代理武装在该地区和世界各地的部署,这种情况极有可能迅速改变。
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