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英国新首相苏纳克:创造历史,也面临经济难关

Rishi Sunak Wins Contest to Lead U.K. and Confront Economic Storm
英国新首相苏纳克:创造历史,也面临经济难关

LONDON — Rishi Sunak prevailed in a chaotic three-day race for leader of Britain’s Conservative Party on Monday, a remarkable political comeback that doubled as a historical milestone, making him the first person of color to become prime minister in British history.

伦敦——周一,里希·苏纳克在为期三天的英国保守党领导人竞选混战中获胜,这是一次非凡的政治复出,同时也是历史性的里程碑,使他成为英国历史上第一位登上首相之位的有色人种人士。

The 42-year-old son of Indian immigrants, whose political career has already had its ups and downs, Mr. Sunak won the contest to replace the short-lived prime minister, Liz Truss, when his only remaining opponent, Penny Mordaunt, withdrew after failing to reach the threshold of 100 nominating votes from Conservative lawmakers.

现年42岁的苏纳克是印度移民的后代,此前的政治生涯有起有落。他赢得竞选,将取代短暂执政的首相利兹·特拉斯,而他唯一的对手佩妮·莫当特因未能达到100张保守党议员提名票的门槛而退出。
 

周一,里希·苏纳克(中)在伦敦保守党总部外。

Mr. Sunak, a former chancellor of the Exchequer, is expected to pull Britain back to more mainstream policies after Ms. Truss’s failed experiment in trickle-down economics, which rattled financial markets and badly damaged Britain’s fiscal reputation. He is also likely to offer a stark contrast to the flamboyant style and erratic behavior of Boris Johnson, his former boss and Ms. Truss’s discredited predecessor.

此前,特拉斯的涓滴经济学尝试以失败告终,震动了金融市场,严重损害英国的财政声誉,曾担任财政大臣的苏纳克有望将英国拉回到更主流的政策上来。他还可能与特拉斯的前任鲍里斯·约翰逊的张扬风格和古怪行为形成鲜明对比,如今名誉扫地的鲍里斯是他的前上司。

But Mr. Sunak will confront the gravest economic crisis in Britain in a generation, and he will do so at the helm of a badly fractured Conservative Party. Healing the rifts in the party, and leading the country through the economic crosswinds of the months to come, will require political skills at least as adroit as those that enabled Mr. Sunak to navigate the leadership contest.

但是,苏纳克将面临英国数十年来最严重的经济危机,而且还将领导一个严重分裂的保守党。弥合党内的裂痕,带领国家度过未来几个月的经济难关需要相当的政治技巧,并不比在党魁竞逐中胜出来的轻松。

Mr. Johnson’s decision to pull out of the race on Sunday night cleared a path for Mr. Sunak, who had challenged Ms. Truss last summer but lost to her in a vote of the party’s rank-and-file members. With Mr. Sunak the only surviving candidate this time, he was not subject to another vote of the members.

约翰逊周日晚间决定退出竞选,为苏纳克扫清了道路。去年夏天,苏纳克曾挑战特拉斯,但在党内普通党员的投票中败给了她。由于这次是仅存的候选人,苏纳克不需要再接受普通党员的投票。

It was a head-spinning reversal of fortune for Mr. Sunak, whose abrupt resignation from Mr. Johnson’s cabinet last July set in motion Mr. Johnson’s downfall and pitched Britain into upheaval, culminating in Ms. Truss’s brief, calamitous stint. After he lost the leadership contest to her, it seemed as if Mr. Sunak’s meteoric ascent had cratered as well.

对苏纳克来说,这是一次令人头晕目眩的命运转折。去年7月,他突然从约翰逊的内阁辞职,引发约翰逊下台,并使英国陷入动荡,最终带来特拉斯短暂而灾难性的任期。在党魁竞争中败给她之后,苏纳克的平步青云似乎也遇到挫折。

Now, he will become Britain’s third prime minister in seven weeks, the youngest in two centuries and the first person of the Hindu faith to achieve its highest elected office.

现在,他将成为七周内的第三位英国首相,是两个世纪以来最年轻的首相,也是第一个获得民选最高职位的印度教教徒。

A former investment banker whose wife is the daughter of an Indian technology billionaire, Mr. Sunak will also be one of the wealthiest people ever to occupy 10 Downing Street — something that could prove a vulnerability at a time when Britons are struggling to pay soaring gas bills. The Times of London this year estimated the couple’s worth at more than $800 million, placing them among the 250 wealthiest British people or families.

苏纳克曾是投资银行家,他的妻子是一名印度科技业亿万富翁的女儿,因此他也将成为有史以来最富有的唐宁街10号主人之一——在英国人正深受燃气价格高企之苦时,这可能被证明是一个弱点。据《泰晤士报》今年的估计,苏纳克夫妇的资产超过8亿美元,跻身英国富有个人或家族排行榜前250。

But if his victory swept away another barrier in British politics — putting Mr. Sunak in the same pathbreaking category as Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s first female prime minister, and Benjamin Disraeli, its only prime minister of Jewish heritage — it also thrust him into power at a singularly difficult moment.

但是,如果说他的胜利扫除了英国政坛的又一道壁垒——使苏纳克与英国首位女首相玛格丽特·撒切尔,以及唯一的犹太血统首相本杰明·迪斯雷利一样成为开创性人物——这也让他在一个特别困难的时刻获得权力。

“There is no doubt we face profound economic challenges,” Mr. Sunak said in brief, somewhat stiff, remarks after his victory. “We now need stability and unity, and I will make it my utmost priority to bring my party and country together.”

“毫无疑问,我们面临着严峻的经济挑战,”胜选后,苏纳克发表了简短而有些生硬的讲话。“我们现在需要稳定和团结,我的首要任务是把我的党和国家团结起来。”

Britain is suffering the twin scourges of surging energy prices and a recession, as well as the self-inflicted damage of Ms. Truss’s free-market agenda: sweeping unfunded tax cuts that frightened markets, sent the pound into a tailspin, and kicked off a rebellion of her own lawmakers.

英国正遭受着能源价格飙升和经济衰退的双重灾难,以及特拉斯的自由市场议程给自身造成的损害:无资金支持的大规模减税令市场恐慌,英镑暴跌,还引发了本党议员的反叛。

The dramatic circumstances of Mr. Sunak’s rise reinforced the problems he will face in uniting a divided party. Had Ms. Mordaunt cobbled together the necessary 100 votes from lawmakers, polls suggested she would have stood a decent chance of beating him with the members, as Ms. Truss did.

苏纳克崛起的戏剧性情境加剧了他在团结一个分裂的政党时将面临的问题。民调显示,如果莫当特能凑齐必要的100张议员提名票,将有很大的机会像特拉斯那样,在普通党员选举中击败苏纳克。

Her failed challenge and Mr. Johnson’s aborted bid laid bare a party still torn by factions. Some members continue to view Mr. Sunak as Mr. Johnson’s political assassin, and the serial scandals of Mr. Johnson’s tenure, followed by the economic misfire of Ms. Truss’s, have left the popularity of the Tories in tatters.

她的挑战失败以及约翰逊放弃竞选暴露了该党仍存在派系分歧。一些成员仍然认为苏纳克是约翰逊的政治刺客,约翰逊任期内的一系列丑闻,以及特拉斯任期内的经济失败,让保守党的受欢迎程度一落瓦解。

The party now lags the opposition Labour Party by more than 30 percentage points in some opinion polls. The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has demanded a general election, and those calls could grow louder as the new prime minister imposes a belt-tightening economic program in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis.

在一些民意调查中,保守党现在落后于反对党工党30多个百分点。工党领袖基尔·斯塔默已经要求举行大选,随着新首相在生活成本危机中推行紧缩经济计划,这种呼声可能会越来越高。

Still, political analysts said the party’s swift conclusion to the leadership contest, which avoided a vote by the members, suggested that for now, the feuding Tory factions were committed to rallying around Mr. Sunak. In her withdrawal statement, Ms. Mordaunt called for people to back her rival.

不过,政治分析人士表示,保守党迅速结束了领导权的争夺,避免了党员投票,这表明,就目前而言,不和的各派系都决心和苏纳克站在一起。在退出声明中,莫当特呼吁人们支持她的竞争对手。

“After the trauma of the last four or five months, even factions that do not support Sunak are going to give him a fair wind,” said Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics. “They have to decide whether they want to win another election or spend a period out of government fighting with each other.”

“经历了过去四五个月的创伤后,即使是不支持苏纳克的派系也会给他一点机会,”伦敦政治经济学院政治学教授托尼·特拉弗斯说。“他们必须做出决定,是赢得另一场选举,还是在失去权力的一段时间内互相争斗。”

British assets and the pound jumped after news of Mr. Sunak’s victory, raising hopes that his fiscal prudence and more technocratic style of governing would settle investors after the turbulence set off by Ms. Truss.

在苏纳克获胜的消息传出后,英国资产和英镑大幅上涨,人们希望,在特拉斯引发的动荡之后,他的审慎财政政策和更偏重技术官僚风格的治理方式将安抚投资者。

As a candidate, Mr. Sunak warned that her plan to reduce taxes at a time of double-digit inflation would be destabilizing. He called for keeping in place an increase in corporate taxes and holding off on a cut in income tax, both of which Mr. Sunak had proposed while chancellor. “Borrowing your way out of inflation isn’t a plan,” he said at a debate in July, “it’s a fairy-tale.”

作为候选人的苏纳克曾警告说,在通货膨胀率达到两位数的时候,特拉斯的减税计划将会破坏稳定。他呼吁保持增加公司税的政策,并暂缓削减所得税,这两项政策都是苏纳克在担任财政大臣期间提出的。他在7月的一次辩论中说:“通过借贷摆脱通货膨胀不是计划,而是童话。”

Mr. Sunak said almost nothing about his plans during this more compressed race. But he is expected to hew to the agenda he laid out during the campaign last summer, which emphasized the need to curb inflation before reducing taxes. With Britain’s borrowing having risen as a result of Ms. Truss’s policies, he may be forced into deeper spending cuts than he once expected.

在此次更短暂的竞选中,苏纳克几乎没有谈到自己的计划。但预计他将坚持去年夏天竞选时提出的议程,强调在减税之前必须抑制通货膨胀。由于特拉斯的政策导致了英国的借贷增加,他可能会被迫削减开支,比他曾经预期的幅度更大。

Some analysts expect him to retain Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor whom Ms. Truss recruited after she was forced to eject her first, Kwasi Kwarteng, the architect of the market-destabilizing tax cuts. Mr. Hunt reversed virtually all of Ms. Truss’s tax cuts, embracing ideas similar to Mr. Sunak’s.

一些分析人士预计,他将留下杰里米·亨特,也就是特拉斯在被迫将夸西·克沃滕解职后任命的财政大臣。克沃滕制定了破坏市场稳定的减税政策。亨特几乎废除了特拉斯的所有减税措施,支持与苏纳克类似的想法。

“The pressure on him is to run the most stable, responsible, efficient government as is humanly possible,” Professor Travers said. “How the financial markets are going to respond is going to be major check on this government.”

“他面临的压力是尽可能地管理一个最稳定、最负责任、最高效的政府,”特拉弗斯说。“金融市场将如何回应将是对这届政府的主要考验。”

The man chosen to face all these challenges was born in Southampton, on England’s south coast, to Indian immigrants who had moved to Britain from East Africa. His father was a family doctor; his mother ran a pharmacy. They saved to send him to Winchester College, one of Britain’s most academically rigorous high schools, and then to Oxford University, where he studied philosophy, politics, and economics.

将负责面对这些挑战的苏纳克出生在英格兰南海岸的南安普敦,来自从东非搬到英国的印度移民家庭。他的父亲是一名家庭医生。他的母亲经营一家药店。他们攒钱把他送到英国治学最严的高中之一温彻斯特学院,然后供他上牛津大学,在那里他学习哲学、政治和经济学。

From there, Mr. Sunak worked at Goldman Sachs and at a hedge fund, and later earned an M.B.A. at Stanford University, where he met his wife, Akshata Murty. Her father is Narayana Murthy, the founder of Infosys, whose wealth Forbes magazine estimates at $4.5 billion.

而后,苏纳克曾在高盛和一家对冲基金工作,后在斯坦福大学获得MBA,并在那里结识他的妻子阿克沙塔·穆尔蒂,其父是印孚瑟斯(Infosys)的创始人纳拉亚纳·穆尔蒂,《福布斯》杂志估计其财富为45亿美元。

Mr. Sunak entered Parliament in 2015, rising quickly to become chancellor in 2020, where he won instant popularity by handing out billions of pounds to protect those who lost jobs in the coronavirus pandemic.

苏纳克于2015年进入议会,很快在2020年成为财政大臣,由于发放了数十亿英镑来保护那些在新冠病毒大流行中失业的人,他立即获得了很高的人气。

But his career was nearly derailed by reports that Ms. Murty held a privileged tax status that allowed her to avoid paying millions of dollars in British taxes on her some of her income. It also emerged that he had retained a U.S. green card, which would allow him to settle permanently in the United States.

但是,有报道称穆尔蒂享受优惠税收待遇,使她可以避免为她的部分收入缴纳数百万美元的英国税款,这些报道几乎让他的事业脱轨。人们还发现他保留了一张美国绿卡,将使他可以在美国永久定居。

Mr. Sunak gave up his green card and Ms. Murty changed her tax status, but the damage was done. Though he survived the episode, it left him with lingering vulnerability at a time of economic hardship for million of Britons.

苏纳克放弃了绿卡,穆尔蒂也改变了她的纳税身份,但为时已晚。尽管事情已经平息,在数百万英国人面临经济困难之际,这仍是他挥之不去的弱点。

Critics often tar him as a jet-setter, out of touch with the lives of ordinary people. It doesn’t help that he and Ms. Murty own expensive houses in London, in his parliamentary district in Yorkshire and in Santa Monica, Calif. Or that he works out on a Peloton exercise machine and has been photographed wearing $500 Prada suede loafers and using a $200 “smart” mug that keeps coffee at a precise temperature.

批评者经常称他是上流社会人士,与普通人的生活脱节。他和穆尔蒂在伦敦、约克郡的选区和加利福尼亚州圣莫尼卡拥有昂贵的房产。他在Peloton健身机上锻炼,并被拍到穿着500美元的Prada麂皮乐福鞋,使用200美元的“智能”马克杯,能将咖啡精确保持在某一温度。这些都加剧了他受到的批评。

“It will hinge on what people see him doing,” said Anand Menon, a professor of European politics at Kings College London. “He will be vulnerable if he is seen as defending the privileged and the rich.”

“这要取决于人们看到他在做什么,”伦敦国王学院欧洲政治学教授阿南德·梅农说。“如果看上去他是在保护特权和富人,那就会很狼狈。”

Professor Menon said Mr. Sunak’s race was less of a factor in Britain than it would be for a comparable political figure in the United States. For one, he was elected by Conservative lawmakers rather than in a popular vote. While critics speculated that his Indian heritage might have hurt him with some party members last summer, his wealth was viewed as the bigger issue.

梅农说,在英国,苏纳克的种族面貌并不像类似的政界人士在美国政坛那样重要。别的且不提,他毕竟是由保守党议员而非民众投票选出的。虽然批评人士推测,去年夏天,他的印度族裔出身可能伤害到他和一些党内人士的关系,但他的财富被视为更大的问题。

“It’s not like we’re living in some kind of post-racial nirvana here,” Professor Menon said. “We just do it somewhat differently than in the United States.”

“我们并不是生活在某种后种族时代的极乐世界里,”梅农说。“我们只是做法上与美国略有不同。”

On the streets of London, people reacted cautiously, perhaps reflecting weariness after months of turmoil in British politics.

在伦敦街头,人们的反应有所保留,或许反映了英国政局数月动荡后的厌倦。

“They need someone regular in charge — someone who knows what it’s really like out here, rather than looking down from the 26th floor,” said Hazel Wallace, 26, who works in an ice-cream parlor and views the cost of living as the biggest issue. “It’s survival of the fittest right now, what with everything going up.”

“他们需要一个中规中矩的人来负责——一个知道外面的真实情况的人,而不是从26楼往下看,”26岁的冰淇淋店员工海泽尔·华莱士说,他认为生活成本是最重要的问题。“什么都涨价,现在到了适者生存的时候。”

But David Smith, 69, a retired painter and decorator sipping a pint in the Bishop Blaize pub in Leyburn, said he was relieved that Mr. Sunak had replaced Ms. Truss. “He did warn the party that things wouldn’t be right with her, and nobody listened to him,” Mr. Smith said, adding that he expected Mr. Sunak to do “a fantastic job.”

但在莱本的布莱兹主教酒吧喝酒的戴维·史密斯说,苏纳克取代特拉斯让他松了一口气。这位69岁的油漆粉刷匠说:“他确实警告过保守党,在她的领导下会出问题,但没人听他的。”他还说,他预计苏纳克会有“出色表现”。
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