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美国的犹疑是如何一步步导致俄乌战争发生的

America’s Road to the Ukraine War
美国的犹疑是如何一步步导致俄乌战争发生的

Smoke hung over the gray streets that day in Kyiv, where protesters had piled tires, furniture and barbed wire to barricade themselves from security forces. Torn blue and yellow Ukrainian flags whipped in the wind, and candles left on sidewalks marked where people had been gunned down. A drawing of a reviled president depicted as a pig was tacked to a lamp post.

那天,灰色的基辅街头烟雾弥漫,抗议者把轮胎、家具和铁丝网堆起来当路障,用来抵御安保部队的进攻。撕破的蓝黄色乌克兰国旗在风中飘扬,人行道摆放着蜡烛,标志着有人在此处遇难。有电灯杆上钉着一张画,一个遭到民众唾弃的总统被画成了一头猪。

And yet there was a feeling of hope in Kyiv in March 2014, as Secretary of State John F. Kerry met with survivors of a violent crackdown on demonstrations. He commended the Ukrainians for their bravery in confronting a Kremlin-backed leader and promised that the United States would support the new government.

不过,在2014年3月,当国务卿约翰·克里会见暴力镇压示威活动的幸存者时,在基辅,你能感受到希望。他称赞乌克兰人在面对克里姆林宫背后撑腰的领导人时,表现出了可嘉的勇气,并承诺美国将支持新政府。
 

4月,在白宫附近举行的支持乌克兰的示威活动。

But Russian forces had moved into Crimea, Ukraine’s peninsula on the Black Sea, and Mr. Kerry warned: “It is clear that Russia has been working hard to create a pretext for being able to invade further.”

但俄罗斯军队已经进入了克里米亚,那是乌克兰位于黑海的半岛,克里警告:“很明显,俄罗斯一直在极力制造借口,以便进一步入侵。”

Eight years later, with Russian troops obliterating Ukrainian cities and towns, Mr. Kerry’s words seem eerily prescient.

八年后,在俄罗斯军队摧毁乌克兰的城镇之时,克里的话似乎有了诡异的先见之明。

Through the administrations of three American presidents, the United States has sent mixed signals about its commitment to Ukraine. All the while, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia watched Washington’s moves, biding his time.

在三届美国总统任内,美国对乌克兰的承诺发出了互相矛盾的信号。与此同时,俄罗斯总统普京一直在观察华盛顿的行动,等待时机。

“We’ve been all over the place on Ukraine,” said Fiona Hill, a Russia and Eurasia expert who advised the three administrations before President Biden. “Our own frames have shifted over time, and our own policies have shifted.”

“在乌克兰问题上,我们始终变来变去,”俄罗斯和欧亚问题专家、曾为拜登总统之前的三届政府提供咨询的菲奥娜·希尔说。“随着时间的推移,我们自己的框架发生了变化,我们自己的政策也发生了变化。”

“I think we need to re-articulate why Ukraine matters,” she said.

“我认为我们需要重新阐明乌克兰为何如此重要,”她说。

Now, two months into Mr. Putin’s war, the United States is at the center of an extraordinary campaign to foil him, casting the military conflict as a broader battle between democratic values and authoritarian might.

现在,普京发动的战争已经持续了两个月,而美国位于一场为了挫败他而展开的宏大行动的中心,并将这场军事冲突描绘成一场民主价值观和威权势力的大战的一部分。

“It’s nothing less than a direct challenge to the rule-based international order established since the end of World War II,” Mr. Biden said in Warsaw last month. “And it threatens to return to decades of war that ravaged Europe before the international rule-based order was put in place. We cannot go back to that.”

“这简直是对‘二战’结束以来建立的以规则为基础的国际秩序的直接挑战,”拜登上个月在华沙说。“它有可能重新回到基于规则的国际秩序建立之前那种蹂躏欧洲长达数十年的战争。我们不能再回到那个时代了。”

The United States has rushed weapons and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and imposed sanctions intended to cut off Russia from global markets. This past weekend, Mr. Biden sent Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III to Ukraine as affirmation of Washington’s support.

美国已经向乌克兰紧急提供了武器和人道主义援助,并实施了旨在切断俄罗斯与全球市场联系的制裁措施。上周末,拜登派国务卿安东尼·布林肯和国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀前往乌克兰,以明确表明来自华盛顿的支持。

In many ways, officials said, Mr. Biden is trying to make up for the years of U.S. indecisiveness toward Kyiv. Those who wavered earlier include top Biden aides who had worked in the Obama administration as well as officials in the administration of Donald J. Trump, who undermined U.S. policy on Ukraine for personal political gain, according to current and former officials and a review of records.

官员们说,拜登在很多方面都试图弥补美国多年来对乌克兰的犹豫不决。据现任和前任官员的说法,以及记者查阅的相关记录,早些时候犹豫不决的人包括曾在奥巴马政府工作的一些拜登的高级助手,以及特朗普政府的官员;特朗普出于个人政治利益破坏了美国的乌克兰政策。

The Roots of War

战争的根源


Since the earliest days of Ukraine’s independence, in 1991, American officials have recognized the country’s strategic value as Russia struggled to find its footing after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

自乌克兰1991年独立之初,俄罗斯在苏联解体后努力寻求立足之地的时候,美国官员就认识到了该国的战略价值。

“Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire,” Zbigniew Brzezinski, who had been the national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, wrote in a March 1994 essay. “But with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.”

“没有乌克兰,俄罗斯就不再是一个帝国,”曾担任卡特总统国家安全顾问的布热津斯基在1994年3月的一篇评论中写道。“但乌克兰若是被收买后成为其附庸,俄罗斯自然而然就会成为一个帝国。”

Two months earlier, under pressure from the United States, Ukraine had reached an agreement to destroy its nuclear arsenal. President Bill Clinton heralded the pact as “a hopeful and historic breakthrough” to improve global security. But Ukraine’s leader, President Leonid Kuchma, warned that it would make his fledgling country more vulnerable.

那之前两个月,在美国的压力下,乌克兰达成了销毁核武库的协议。克林顿总统宣称该协议是改善全球安全的“一个充满希望的历史性突破”。但领导乌克兰的列昂尼德·库奇玛警告,这将使他的新国家更加脆弱。

“If tomorrow, Russia goes into Crimea, no one will raise an eyebrow,” he said that year.

“如果俄罗斯明天就进入克里米亚,没人会大惊小怪,”他在那年说。

At the time, Moscow was already goading a separatist movement in Crimea, even as Mr. Clinton predicted that Ukraine would become a major European power.

当时,俄罗斯已在克里米亚煽动分离运动,即便克林顿预言乌克兰将成为一个欧洲大国。

Yet over the next decade, experts said, NATO left out Ukraine to avoid angering Russia, which some members saw as an important economic partner and energy supplier and hoped would evolve into a more democratic and less threatening power.

而专家们表示,在那之后十年里,不想激怒俄罗斯的北约将乌克兰排除在外,一些成员国将俄罗斯视为重要经济伙伴和能源供应国,并希望它发展成为一个更民主、威胁更小的大国。

The Baltic States joined NATO in 2004, and four years later, President George W. Bush publicly backed Ukraine’s ambition to follow. But Western European nations were reluctant. Today, Ukraine is neither a NATO member nor a part of the European Union, and officials cautioned as recently as this month that its inclusion in either was far from likely.

波罗的海国家于2004年加入北约,四年后,布什总统公开支持乌克兰加入的意愿。但西欧国家并不情愿。如今,乌克兰既不是北约成员国,也不是欧盟的一部分,就在这个月,官员们还指出,乌克兰加入北约和欧盟的可能性都很小。

Years after Mr. Bush’s show of support, a new Ukrainian president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, tried to move the country closer to Russia, sparking mass protests in November 2013 when he refused to sign a long-planned agreement to strengthen ties with the European Union.

在布什表态支持的多年后,时任总统维克托·亚努科维奇试图让乌克兰更亲近俄罗斯,2013年11月,他拒绝签署一项筹划已久的加强与欧盟关系的协议,引发了大规模抗议活动。

That led to the crackdown in Kyiv’s streets in 2014.

抗议导致了2014年基辅街头的镇压行动。

Security forces opened fire on protesters in central Kyiv in February that year, killing dozens. Protesters held their ground, attracting public support in Europe and the United States. Mr. Yanukovych fled to Russia.

当年2月,安全部队向基辅市中心的抗议者开火,造成数十人死亡。抗议者坚守阵地,得到了欧美公众的支持。亚努科维奇逃至俄罗斯。

“In the hearts of Ukrainians and the eyes of the world, there is nothing strong about what Russia is doing,” Mr. Kerry said during his visit to Kyiv.

“在乌克兰人民心里,在世界人民眼里,俄罗斯的所作所为没有什么强大之处,”克里在访问基辅时表示。

Within days, Mr. Putin ordered the invasion of Crimea, and he soon formally recognized it as a “sovereign and independent state.”

几天后,普京下令入侵克里米亚,并很快正式承认它是一个“主权独立国家”。

A slow-burn war in eastern Ukraine followed, with Kyiv battling a separatist movement supported by Russian weapons and troops. An estimated 13,000 people were killed over the next eight years.

随后,乌克兰东部爆发了一场漫长的消耗战,乌克兰政府与由俄罗斯武器和援军支持的分离运动展开鏖战。在接下来的8年里,估计有1.3万人丧生。

Mr. Putin’s swift actions caught President Barack Obama off guard.

普京的果断行动让奥巴马总统措手不及。

Mr. Obama vowed the United States would never recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and imposed economic sanctions, but his aides said in later accounts that he was skeptical of Ukraine’s corruption-ridden government.

奥巴马誓言美国绝不会承认俄罗斯吞并克里米亚的行径,并实施了经济制裁,但据他的助手后来描述,奥巴马对腐败猖獗的乌克兰政府持怀疑态度。

And Mr. Obama said in a 2016 interview that a showdown with Mr. Putin over Ukraine would have been futile.

奥巴马也在2016年的一次采访中表示,就乌克兰问题与普京针锋相对是没有意义的。

His administration gave more than $1.3 billion in assistance to Ukraine between 2014 and 2016, but Mr. Obama said no when his national security team, including Mr. Biden and Mr. Kerry, recommended sending weapons to Kyiv.

在2014年至2016年间,奥巴马政府向乌克兰提供了超过13亿美元的援助,但当拜登和克里在内的国家安全小组提议向乌克兰运送武器时,奥巴马拒绝了。

Among Mr. Obama’s defenders was Mr. Blinken, then the deputy secretary of state and now America’s top diplomat.

时任副国务卿、现任美国最高外交官的布林肯正是奥巴马的支持者之一。

By sending military aid to Ukraine, “you’re playing to Russia’s strength, because Russia is right next door,” Mr. Blinken, then the deputy secretary of state, said in early 2015.

2015年初,时任副国务卿的布林肯曾表示,向乌克兰提供军事援助“对俄罗斯来说正中下怀,因为它就在乌克兰隔壁”。

Any aid, he added, “is likely to be matched and then doubled and tripled and quadrupled by Russia.”

他还表示,美国的任何援助“都可能会让俄罗斯拿出对等行动,然后翻倍、三倍、四倍加码”。

Neither the Obama administration nor its key European allies believed Ukraine was ready to join NATO. But tensions in the alliance were growing as Europeans sought to maintain trade ties and energy deals with Russia.

无论是奥巴马政府还是重要的欧洲盟友,都不认为乌克兰为加入北约做好了准备。但随着欧洲国家寻求与俄罗斯维持贸易往来和能源协议,美国和欧洲盟友的紧张关系也在加剧。

The division was captured in a phone call in which a senior State Department official profanely criticized European leaders’ approach to helping Ukraine. A leaked recording of the call was posted on YouTube in February 2014 in what was widely believed to be an attempt by Russia to stir up discord between the United States and Europe.

国务院一位高级官员的一次通话暴露了这种分裂,他粗暴地批评了欧洲领导人援助乌克兰的方式。2014年2月,那次通话的泄露录音被发布到YouTube上,人们普遍认为是俄罗斯在试图挑起美欧之间的不和。

Yet as much as anything else, Ukraine was a costly distraction to Mr. Obama’s broader agenda.

然而,就与其他问题一样,乌克兰问题也严重影响了奥巴马更广泛议程的推进。

“It was hard to reconcile the time and energy required to lead the diplomacy on Ukraine with the demands on the United States elsewhere around the world, especially after ISIS took over much of Iraq and Syria in the summer of 2014,” Derek H. Chollet, a senior Pentagon official at the time, wrote in a book about Mr. Obama’s foreign policy.

“在乌克兰问题上开展外交活动所需的时间和精力,与美国在世界其他地区需要进行的投入难以协调,特别是在2014年夏天ISIS占领了伊拉克和叙利亚的大部分地区之后,”时任五角大楼高级官员的德里克·霍尔莱特在他关于奥巴马外交政策的书中写道。

Mr. Chollet is now a senior counselor to Mr. Blinken at the State Department.

霍尔莱特现在是布林肯在国务院的高级顾问。

‘Do Us a Favor’

“帮我们一个忙”


Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, won a landslide victory in Ukraine’s presidential elections in April 2019 after campaigning on an anti-corruption pledge.

 在2019年4月的乌克兰总统选举中,前喜剧演员弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基以反腐败承诺为竞选纲领赢得了压倒性胜利。

Once in office, he turned to ending the war in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine through negotiations with Mr. Putin.

上台后,他转而与普京谈判,以图结束乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区的战争。

The new Ukrainian president “knew he needed the backing of the United States and the American president,” said William B. Taylor Jr., who started his second tour as ambassador to Ukraine that June after his predecessor, Marie L. Yovanovitch, was pushed out on Mr. Trump’s orders.

乌克兰新总统“知道他需要美国和美国总统的支持”,小威廉·泰勒说。在他的前任玛丽·约瓦诺维奇被特朗普的命令逼走后,泰勒于那年6月开始了他的第二次驻乌克兰大使之旅。

Mr. Zelensky tried to arrange a meeting with Mr. Trump at the White House. But Mr. Trump had negative views of Ukraine even before he took office, influenced partly by his former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who had made more than $60 million consulting for a Ukrainian political party backed by Russia.

泽连斯基试图安排在白宫与特朗普会面。但特朗普甚至在上任之前就对乌克兰持负面看法,部分是受其前竞选主席保罗·马纳福特的影响。马纳福特曾为一个俄罗斯支持的乌克兰政党做顾问,从中获取了6000多万美元。

Mr. Trump’s opinions were reinforced in meetings with Mr. Putin, whom he publicly admired, and Viktor Orban, the autocratic prime minister of Hungary.

特朗普的观点在与普京和匈牙利独裁总理欧尔班·维克托的会晤中得到了强化。特朗普公开表达对普京的仰慕。

And close associates of Mr. Trump, in particular Rudolph W. Giuliani, then his personal lawyer, were urging the president to get Mr. Zelensky to open two investigations: one into Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump’s main political opponent, for actions in Ukraine related to his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings; the other based in part on a debunked conspiracy theory that Ukraine, not Russia, had interfered in the 2016 election, to help Hillary Clinton. Mr. Trump embraced the theory because it undermined the finding of the U.S. intelligence community that Russia had interfered to help him.

特朗普的亲密助手,尤其是他当时的私人律师鲁道夫·朱利安尼,敦促总统让泽连斯基展开两项调查:一项是针对特朗普的主要政治对手拜登,调查他在乌克兰的行为是否与其子亨特·拜登的商业交易有关;另一项则基于一个已被揭穿的阴谋论,即是乌克兰而非俄罗斯干预了2016年大选,以帮助希拉里·克林顿。特朗普之所以支持这一理论,是因为它能破坏美国情报界关于俄罗斯在干预并帮助他的发现。

But U.S. policy had been on a notably different track. Earlier, in December 2017, under pressure from his national security aides and Congress, Mr. Trump agreed to do what Mr. Obama would not: approve the sale of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine.

但美国的政策却截然不同。2017年12月早些时候,在国家安全助手和国会的压力下,特朗普同意了一件奥巴马不会做的事:批准向乌克兰出售标枪反坦克导弹。

But in mid-2019, the White House froze $391 million in military aid to Ukraine, including the Javelins, to build leverage for Mr. Trump’s demands, congressional investigators later found. The move hobbled Ukraine’s war effort against Russia-backed separatists.

但国会调查人员后来发现,在2019年年中,白宫冻结了对乌克兰的3.91亿美元军事援助,包括标枪导弹,以便为特朗普的要求增加筹码。此举阻挠了乌克兰对俄罗斯支持的分裂分子的战争。

“For it to be held up, they couldn’t understand that,” Mr. Taylor said.

“他们无法理解为什么要搁置它,”泰勒说。

That set the stage for a fateful July 25 call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky. “I would like you to do us a favor,” Mr. Trump said. He requested the two investigations.

这为7月25日特朗普和泽连斯基之间的决定性通话奠定了基础。“我希望你帮我们一个忙,”特朗普说。他要求进行这两项调查。

Mr. Zelensky and his aides were confused. “The rest of the U.S. government was very supportive of Ukraine,” Mr. Taylor said. “But from the top, the president had a different message and set of conditions.”

泽连斯基和他的助手们感到困惑。“美国政府的其他部门都非常支持乌克兰,”泰勒说。“但从最高层来看,总统传达了不同的信息和条件。”

Mr. Zelensky scheduled a CNN interview for September to announce one or both of the investigations that Mr. Trump had requested to satisfy the American president. But the interview never happened because journalists had begun reporting on the hold on military aid, and lawmakers sympathetic to Ukraine had persisted in asking the White House about the suspended aid. On Sept. 9, three House committees announced investigations into the pressure campaign after reviewing a whistle-blower complaint citing the July call.

泽伦斯基定于9月接受CNN的采访,宣布进行特朗普要求的一项或两项调查,以满足这位美国总统。但采访并未发生,因为记者已经开始报道暂停军事援助的情况,而同情乌克兰的议员们一直坚持向白宫询问暂停援助的情况。有人举报了7月的通话,9月9日,三个众议院委员会在审查了举报后,宣布对施压活动展开调查。

The Trump administration released the aid on Sept. 11.

特朗普政府于9月11日发放了援助。

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Mr. Zelensky in Kyiv on Jan. 31, 2020, the first cabinet official to do so since the announcement of an impeachment inquiry into Mr. Trump the previous September. The Senate trial was underway.

2020年1月31日,国务卿迈克·庞皮欧在基辅会见了泽连斯基,这是自前一年9月宣布对特朗普进行弹劾调查以来,美国高层官员首次会见泽连斯基的内阁官员。参议院的审判正在进行中。

Just days earlier, Mr. Pompeo had blown up at an NPR reporter in an interview, asking her to identify Ukraine on an unmarked map and yelling, “Do you think Americans care” about Ukraine? — using an expletive before “Ukraine.”

在那几天前,庞皮欧在接受NPR记者采访时大发雷霆,要求她在一张没有标记的地图上标出乌克兰,并大喊“你认为美国人关心”乌克兰吗?——在乌克兰一词之前有一个不雅用词。

Yet in Kyiv, Mr. Pompeo stood next to Mr. Zelensky in the presidential palace and said the U.S. commitment to support Ukraine “will not waver.”

然而在基辅的总统官邸,庞皮欧与泽连斯基并肩站立,表示美国支持乌克兰的承诺“不会动摇”。

But the damage had been done, and Mr. Zelensky was unconvinced that the United States was a trusted ally, Ms. Yovanovitch said in an interview last month.

但伤害已经发生,约瓦诺维奇在上个月接受采访时说,泽连斯基当时已经不相信美国是一个值得信赖的盟友。

“Trying to use our national security policy in order to further President Trump’s personal and political agenda was not just wrong, but it was really detrimental to the bilateral relationship,” she said. “It colored how Zelensky handled foreign policy.”

“试图利用我们的国家安全政策来推进特朗普总统的个人和政治议程不仅是错误的,而且对双边关系着实有害,”她说。“它影响了泽连斯基处理外交政策的方式。”

With all the disruption, former U.S. officials said, Mr. Putin no doubt saw weakness in Washington.

多名前美国官员表示,在所有这些干扰下,普京无疑看到了华盛顿的弱点。

Biden vs. Putin

拜登与普京


Consumed by the pandemic and the economy, Mr. Biden did not prioritize Ukraine at first. But Mr. Blinken visited Kyiv in May 2021 with a message of support.

受疫情和经济影响,乌克兰并非拜登的优先事项。但布林肯于2021年5月访问了基辅,并传达了支持信息。

During a steady rain, Mr. Blinken joined Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, on a walk to the Wall of National Remembrance, where photos of soldiers who had been killed in combat with Russia in the Donbas were displayed outside St. Michael’s monastery.

在连绵不断的雨中,布林肯和乌克兰外交部长德米特罗·库列巴一同步行前往圣米迦勒金顶修道院外的战争纪念墙,那上面展示着在顿巴斯与俄罗斯交战中阵亡士兵的照片。

But he also went to Kyiv with some tough love, determined to press Ukraine to make political and economic changes — a core issue for Mr. Biden when he oversaw relations with the country as vice president.

但他也带着责之切的心态去了基辅,决心敦促乌克兰做出政治和经济变革——这是在拜登身为副总统并负责与该国关系时的核心问题。

Just before the visit, Mr. Zelensky’s government had replaced the chief executive of the largest state-owned energy company, whom Western officials had praised for his transparency. The State Department had chastised the move as “just the latest example” of Ukrainian leaders violating practices of good governance. In Kyiv, Mr. Blinken told reporters that he was urging Ukraine to strengthen itself by “building institutions, advancing reforms, combating corruption.”

就在访问之前,泽连斯基的政府已经更换了最大的国有能源公司的首席执行官,西方官员称赞他的透明度。国务院谴责此举是乌克兰领导人违反善政做法的“最新例证”。在基辅,布林肯告诉记者,他正在敦促乌克兰通过“建立机构、推进改革、打击腐败”来加强自身实力。

Such concerns paled in the face of Russia’s growing military threat, which Washington was watching “very, very closely,” Mr. Blinken said. Mr. Putin had begun amassing troops along Ukraine’s borders. By fall, the number approached 100,000.

布林肯说,这些担忧在俄罗斯日益增长的军事威胁面前相形失色,华盛顿正在“非常、非常密切地”关注这一威胁。普京已经开始在乌克兰边境集结军队。到秋天,军力接近10万。

This past January, Mr. Blinken rushed back to Kyiv for more consultations before a hastily arranged meeting in Geneva with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, in a last-ditch attempt to avert war.

今年1月,布林肯匆忙返回基辅进行更多磋商,然后匆忙安排在日内瓦与俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫会面,为避免战争做出最后的努力。

But Russia would not be deterred, and high-level contacts between Washington and Moscow have been severely limited ever since.

但俄罗斯不会被吓倒,华盛顿和莫斯科之间的高层接触自那时以来一直极为有限。

By contrast, Mr. Blinken speaks frequently to Mr. Kuleba to convey American support that, at least in terms of aid, has been greater than at any time in the three decades since Ukraine declared independence.

相比之下,布林肯经常与库列巴交谈,传达美国的支持——自乌克兰宣布独立以来的三十年来,至少在援助方面,美国现在的支持比任何时候都要多。

“The world is with you,” Mr. Blinken told him on March 5, stepping into Ukraine just a few feet beyond Poland’s border.

3月5日,布林肯刚从波兰边境踏入乌克兰时告诉他:“世界与你同在。”

“We’re in it with Ukraine — one way or another, short run, the medium run, the long run,” he said.

他说:“我们与乌克兰一同进退——不管是哪种方式,短期、中期、长期。”

Mr. Kuleba referred to an “unprecedented, swift reaction” to Russia’s invasion and thanked Mr. Blinken for the support.

库列巴提到了对俄罗斯入侵的“前所未有的迅速反应”,并感谢布林肯的支持。

“But,” he said, “it has to be continued.”

“但是,”他说,“这必须继续下去。”
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