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美欧多国担忧乌克兰战争扩大化

Fears Are Mounting That Ukraine War Will Spill Across Borders
美欧多国担忧乌克兰战争扩大化

WASHINGTON — For nine weeks, President Biden and the Western allies have emphasized the need to keep the war for Ukraine inside Ukraine.

华盛顿——九个星期以来,拜登总统和西方盟国一直强调,必须将乌克兰战争限制在乌克兰境内。

Now, the fear in Washington and European capitals is that the conflict may soon escalate into a wider war — spreading to neighboring states, to cyberspace and to NATO countries suddenly facing a Russian cutoff of gas. Over the long term, such an expansion could evolve into a more direct conflict between Washington and Moscow reminiscent of the Cold War, as each seeks to sap the other’s power.

现在,美国和欧洲各国政府担心的是,冲突可能很快升级为一场更广泛的战争,蔓延到邻国、网络空间和突然面临俄罗斯天然气断供的北约国家。长期来看,这种扩张可能演变成华盛顿和莫斯科之间更直接的冲突,让人想起冷战,因为双方都在试图削弱对方的实力。
 

上周从马里乌波尔逃离的平民抵达乌克兰扎波尔日亚。

In the past three days, the American secretary of defense has called for an effort to degrade the capability of the Russian military so that it could not invade another country for years to come. The Russians have cut off gas shipments to Poland and Bulgaria, which joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after the collapse of the Soviet Union; Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, immediately denounced the move as an “instrument of blackmail.” Explosions have rocked a disputed area of Moldova, a natural next target for the Russians, and gas depots and even a missile factory in Russia have mysteriously caught fire or come under direct attack from Ukrainian forces.

过去三天里,美国国防部长呼吁努力削弱俄罗斯军队的能力,让它在未来几年都无法入侵另一个国家。俄罗斯切断了对波兰和保加利亚的天然气供应,这两个国家在苏联解体后加入了北约;欧盟委员会总统成员乌苏拉·冯·德莱恩立即谴责此举是“勒索手段”。摩尔多瓦一个有争议的地区发生爆炸,这是俄罗斯人的下一个顺理成章的目标,俄罗斯的天然气仓库甚至导弹工厂都神秘起火,或遭到乌克兰军队的直接攻击。

And with increasing frequency, the Russians are reminding the world of the size and power of their nuclear arsenal, an unsubtle warning that if President Vladimir V. Putin’s conventional forces face any more humiliating losses, he has other options. American and European officials say they see no evidence the Russians are mobilizing their battlefield nuclear forces, but behind the scenes, the officials are already gaming out how they might react to a Russian nuclear test, or demonstration explosion, over the Black Sea or on Ukrainian territory.

俄罗斯人正越来越频繁地提醒世界他们的核武库规模和力量,这是一个直白的警告:如果普京总统的常规部队面临更多耻辱性的损失,他还有其他选择。美国和欧洲官员表示,他们没有看到俄罗斯正在动员战场核力量的证据,但在幕后,官员们已经在考虑如何应对俄罗斯在黑海或乌克兰领土上进行的核试验或示威性引爆。

“Nobody wants to see this war escalate any more than it already has,” John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said on Wednesday when asked about Russia’s nuclear threats. “Certainly nobody wants to see, or nobody should want to see, it escalate into the nuclear realm.”

“没有人希望看到这场战争升级到比现在更高的程度,”五角大楼发言人约翰·柯比周三被问及俄罗斯核威胁时表示。“当然,没有人希望看到,或者说没有人应该希望看到事态升级到核领域。”

American and European officials say their fears are based in part on the growing conviction that the conflict could “go on for some time,” as Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken put it recently.

美国和欧洲官员表示,他们的担忧部分源于越来越多的人相信,冲突可能会“持续一段时间”,正如美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯最近所说的那样。

Talk of a diplomatic resolution or even a cease-fire — attempted at various points by the leaders of France, Israel and Turkey, among others — has died out. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are digging in for the long haul, focusing on what they expect will be an artillery war in the south and east of the country, where Russia has focused its forces after a humiliating retreat from Kyiv and other key cities.

法国、以色列和土耳其等国领导人曾多次试图通过外交途径解决问题,甚至实现停火,但如今已经没有人再谈论这些了。乌克兰和俄罗斯的军队都在为持久战做准备,焦点集中在乌克兰南部和东部,双方预计将会在那里展开一场炮火战。俄罗斯屈辱地从基辅和其他主要城市撤退后,一直在这些地区集中兵力。

“Putin is not willing to back down, nor are the Ukrainians, so there is more blood to come,” said Robin Niblett, the director of Chatham House, a British think tank. At the same time, American and European determination to help Ukraine defeat the Russians has hardened, partly after the atrocities in Bucha and other towns occupied by the Russians became clear, with even Germany overcoming its initial objections and sending artillery and armored vehicles.

“普京不愿意让步,乌克兰人也不愿意,所以还会有更多流血事件发生,”英国智库查塔姆研究所所长罗宾·尼布莱特说。与此同时,美国和欧洲帮助乌克兰打败俄罗斯人的决心更坚定了,部分原因是俄罗斯人在布查和其他被俄罗斯占领的城镇犯下的暴行变得清晰起来,就连德国也克服了最初的反对,送出了火炮和装甲车。

Seth G. Jones, who directs the European Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said on Wednesday that “the risk of a widening war is serious right now.”

华盛顿战略与国际研究中心欧洲安全项目主任塞斯·G·琼斯周三表示,“目前战争扩大的风险相当大。”

“Russian casualties are continuing to mount, and the U.S. is committed to shipping more powerful weapons that are causing those casualties,” Mr. Jones said. Sooner or later, he added, Russia’s military intelligence service might begin to target those weapons shipments inside NATO’s borders.

“俄罗斯的伤亡在持续增加,而美国又不断输送导致这些伤亡的强力武器,”琼斯说。他认为俄罗斯情报机构迟早会开始攻击在北约境内运输的武器。

Mr. Biden himself has endorsed the theory that Mr. Putin has designs that go beyond Ukraine. The invasion, he said on the day it began, Feb. 24, was “always about naked aggression, about Putin’s desire for empire by any means necessary.”

拜登本人也认为,普京早就计划了乌克兰之外的行动。他在2月24日入侵开始那一天说,这场入侵“从来都是赤裸裸的侵略,是普京要尽一切手段满足他的帝国渴望”。

But so far, the war has stayed largely within the geographical confines of Ukraine. The United States and its allies said their goal was to get Russia to withdraw its forces “irreversibly,” as Mr. Blinken put it, and respect Ukraine’s borders as they existed before the invasion. Mr. Biden declined to impose an no-fly zone that would pit American and Russian pilots against each other. Mr. Putin denounced the influx of Western weapons to help the Ukrainian military, but has never attacked those supply lines inside NATO territory.

然而到目前为止,战争大体上是局限在乌克兰的地域范围内的。用布林肯的话说,美国及其盟友的目标是让俄罗斯做出“不可逆的”撤军,并将乌克兰的边境线保持在入侵前的状态。拜登拒绝设置禁飞区,因为那将意味着美国和俄罗斯的飞行员展开直接的对抗。普京谴责了用于协助乌克兰军队的武器输送,不过从未攻击过在北约领土上的补给线。

Now, there are signs that the restraint is fracturing.

但有迹象表明这种克制正在动摇。

When Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, cut off the flow to Poland and Bulgaria, it was clearly a warning sign that Germany — hugely dependent on Russian gas — could be next. Russia was using its most potent economic weapon, sending a message that it could bring pain and, next winter, considerable cold to Eastern and Western Europe without firing a shot. American officials said it was clearly an effort to fragment the NATO allies, who have so far remained united.

俄罗斯能源巨头俄气公司切断对波兰和保加利亚的供应,显然是在警告严重依赖俄罗斯天然气的德国,下一个就轮到它了。俄罗斯在使用自己最有力的经济武器告知世人,它不费一兵一卒就能让东欧和西欧感受到痛苦——到了下一个冬天,它们还将感受到寒冷。美国官员说,此举显然意在瓦解北约,而这个联盟迄今为止一直保持着团结。

Coincidentally or not, Mr. Putin’s move came just after Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III went beyond the administration’s oft-repeated statement that it wanted to make sure Russia emerged from its Ukraine experience strategically weakened.

无论是否出于巧合,普京作出这个举动的同时,国防部长劳埃德·J·奥斯汀三世一改拜登政府的一贯态度,表示要确保俄罗斯在这场战争中得到战略上的削弱。

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” Mr. Austin said, a line that seemed to suggest the U.S. wanted to erode Russian military power for years — presumably as long as Mr. Putin remains in power. The export controls the U.S. has imposed on key microelectronic components Russia needs to produce its missiles and tanks appear designed to do just that.

“我们希望看到俄罗斯被削弱,要弱到无法再做出侵略乌克兰这样的事,”奥斯汀说,这句话似乎表明,美国希望对俄罗斯的军事力量进行长期的侵蚀,可能只要普京在位就不会停止。美国对俄罗斯导弹和坦克所需要的关键微电子元件进行出口管制正是为了达到这个目的。

Some Europeans wondered whether Washington’s war aims had broadened from helping Ukraine to defend itself, which has broad support, to damaging Russia itself, a controversial goal that would feed into a Russian narrative that Moscow’s actions in Ukraine are to defend itself against NATO.

一些欧洲人在怀疑,华盛顿的战争目标是否已经从协助乌克兰自卫扩展到对俄罗斯本身实施破坏,这个具有争议性的目标会助长俄罗斯人的一个说法,即莫斯科在乌克兰的行动是为了抵御北约的侵犯。

Some administration officials insist Mr. Austin’s comments were overinterpreted, and that he was not suggesting a long-term strategic goal of undermining Russian power. Instead, they say, he was just amplifying past statements about the need to sharpen the choices facing Mr. Putin — while setting back Russia’s ability to launch another invasion once it regroups.

拜登政府的一些官员坚称,奥斯汀的言论被过度解读了,他说的并不是一种削弱俄罗斯力量的长期战略目标。他们称他只是在强化此前的声明,表示要更明确地与普京对抗——同时削弱俄罗斯的能力,让他们不能经过重整后发起又一次入侵。

But many in Europe thought his statement suggested a long war of attrition that could have many fronts.

但是欧洲不少人觉得,他的声明意味着将在多条战线上进行旷日持久的消耗战。

“Are we headed for a wider war or is this just a gaffe by Austin?” asked François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst.

“我们是要陷进一场更广泛的战争了吗,还是只是奥斯汀失言?”法国防务分析人士弗朗索瓦·埃斯堡说。

“There is a widening consensus about supplying Ukraine howitzers and more complex weapons systems, and everyone is now doing that,” Mr. Heisbourg noted.

“现在形成了一个更广泛的共识,要向乌克兰提供榴弹炮和更精良的武器系统,大家都在这么做,”埃斯堡说。

“But it’s another thing to pivot the war aim from Ukraine to Russia. I don’t believe there’s any consensus on that.” Weakening Russia’s military capacity “is a good thing to do,” Mr. Heisbourg said, “but it’s a means to an end, not an end in itself.”

“但是要把战争重心从乌克兰转向俄罗斯,那就是另一回事了。我不认为这方面有共识。”削弱俄罗斯的军事实力“是好事”,埃斯堡说,“但这是通往终点的一个手段,而不是终点本身。”
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