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乌克兰战争的根源:一场危机是如何酿成的

The Roots of the Ukraine War: How the Crisis Developed
乌克兰战争的根源:一场危机是如何酿成的

It felt like a scene from the Cold War, a perilous episode from a bygone era. An unpredictable Russian leader was amassing troops and tanks on a neighbor’s border. There was fear of a bloody East-West conflagration.

这就像一个出自冷战的场景,旧时代的一个危险篇章。一位捉摸不定的俄罗斯领导人,在一个邻国的边境集结了大量士兵和坦克。人们担心会出现一场血腥的东西大冲突。

Then the Cold War turned hot: Vladimir V. Putin ordered Russian forces to invade Ukraine. The repercussions were immediate, and far-reaching.

然后冷战就变成了热战:弗拉基米尔·V·普京命令俄军入侵乌克兰。它产生的影响直接而深远。
 

12月,一名乌克兰士兵在前线巡逻。俄乌两国争端自2014年以来一直没有平息。

Now, following the launch of Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, the largest mobilization of forces Europe has seen since 1945 is underway. So far, Moscow has been denied the swift victory it anticipated, and has failed to capture major cities across the country, including Kyiv, the capital. It has been weighed down by an ill-prepared military and has faced tenacious resistance from Ukrainian soldiers and civilian resistance fighters. Still, Russia has superior military might, and Mr. Putin has indicated that his ultimate goal is to capture Kyiv, topple Ukraine’s democratically elected government, and subsume the country into Russia’s orbit.

2月24日俄罗斯发动全面入侵后,欧洲自1945年以来最大规模的武装动员正在展开。迄今为止,莫斯科速战速决的企图已经被挫败,未能攻占包括基辅在内的任何一座大城市。准备不足的军队士气低迷,遇到了乌克兰士兵和平民武装的顽强抵抗。然而俄罗斯的军事力量仍然是占优的,普京也表明他的最终目标是攻占基辅,推翻经民主选举产生的乌克兰政府,将这个国家置于俄罗斯的势力范围内。

The invasion threatens to destabilize the already volatile post-Soviet region, with serious consequences for the security structure that has governed Europe since the 1990s. Mr. Putin has long lamented the loss of Ukraine and other republics when the Soviet Union broke apart. Now, diminishing NATO, the military alliance that helped keep the Soviets in check, appears to be part of his mission. Before invading, Russia made a list of far-reaching demands to reshape that structure — positions NATO and the United States rejected.

这场侵略战争可能会向本已动荡不安的前苏联地区注入更多不确定性,给1990年代以来支配欧洲的安全结构带来严重后果。苏联解体后失去乌克兰等共和国一直让普京痛心不已。如今他似乎以削弱北约这个制约苏联的军事联盟为己任。在入侵前,俄罗斯提出了一连串涵盖广泛的条件,要求重塑这一秩序——遭到了北约和美国的拒绝。

With the war grinding on, U.S. intelligence agencies say Mr. Putin has been frustrated by the slow pace of the military advance and Russian commanders have been increasingly intensifying indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets and infrastructure and resorting to tactics used in previous wars in Chechnya and Syria. Mariupol. Kharkiv. Chernihiv. Sumy. Okhtyrka. Hostomel. Irpin. The list of Ukrainian cities turned to ruins keeps growing.

随着残酷战争的继续,美国情报机构称,军事行动的进展缓慢让普京十分不满,指挥官们加强了对平民目标和基础设施的无差别攻击,采用了此前在车臣和叙利亚使用过的战术。马里乌波尔。哈尔科夫。切尔尼科夫。苏梅。阿克提卡。戈斯托梅利。伊尔平。一个又一个乌克兰城市变成废墟。

The war has unleashed a devastating humanitarian toll and claimed thousands of lives. It has also prompted more than three million people to flee Ukraine, spurring what the United Nations has called the fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II.

战争带来了惨重的人道灾难,导致成千上万人丧生。此外还有超过300万人逃离乌克兰,由此引发了联合国所说的自二战以来恶化最快的难民危机。

In the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, which has become a potent emblem of the human toll of war, a Russian strike on March 16 destroyed a theater where hundreds of people had been sheltering, including children. The city has no electricity or water, and people have been digging trenches to accommodate the mounting numbers of bodies.

被围困的南部港口城市马里乌波尔凸显了战争给人造成的创伤,俄军在3月16日的一次袭击摧毁了一座剧院,那里是包括儿童在内的数百人的避难地。整座城市断水断电,要挖掘沟渠来掩埋堆积如山的尸体。

Several rounds of diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine have failed to stop the war. The United States and the European Union have mobilized to impose some of the toughest economic sanctions ever on Mr. Putin’s government. Hundreds of Western businesses — manufacturers, oil companies, retailers and fast-food chains like McDonald’s — have suspended operations in Russia, turning back the clock on the country’s opening to the west.

俄乌两国的几轮外交谈判未能实现停火。美国和欧盟都行动起来,对普京的政府施加了有史以来最为严厉的经济制裁。数百家西方企业——制造商、石油公司、零售商和麦当劳这样的快餐连锁——停止在俄罗斯运营,让俄罗斯回到了向西方开放之前的日子。

Here is a look at how the world got here.

让我们来看看世界是如何走到这一步的。

What’s behind the Ukraine crisis?

乌克兰危机背后的原因是什么?


After the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, NATO expanded eastward, eventually taking in most of the European nations that had been in the Communist sphere. The Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, once parts of the Soviet Union, joined NATO, as did Poland, Romania and others.

上世纪90年代初苏联解体后,北约东扩,最终吸收了大部分曾经属于共产主义势力范围的欧洲国家。曾经是苏联一部分的波罗的海共和国立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚加入了北约,波兰、罗马尼亚等国也加入了北约。

As a result, NATO moved hundreds of miles closer to Moscow, directly bordering Russia. And in 2008, it stated that it planned — some day — to enroll Ukraine, though that is still seen as a far-off prospect.

结果,北约向莫斯科靠近了数百公里,直接与俄罗斯接壤。2008年,该组织表示计划在未来接纳乌克兰,尽管这仍被视为遥远的前景。

Mr. Putin has described the Soviet disintegration as one of the greatest catastrophes of the 20th century that robbed Russia of its rightful place among the world’s great powers. He has spent his 22 years in power rebuilding Russia’s military and reasserting its geopolitical clout.

普京称苏联解体是20世纪最大的灾难之一,它剥夺了俄罗斯在世界强国中的应有地位。在执政的22年里,他一直在重建俄罗斯的军事实力,重新确立俄罗斯的地缘政治影响力。

The Russian president calls NATO’s expansion menacing, and the prospect of Ukraine joining it a major threat. As Russia has grown more assertive and stronger militarily, his complaints about NATO have grown more strident. He has repeatedly invoked the specter of American ballistic missiles and combat forces in Ukraine, though U.S., Ukrainian and NATO officials insist there are none.

这位俄罗斯总统称北约的扩张不怀好意,而乌克兰加入北约的前景是一个重大威胁。随着俄罗斯在军事上变得更加自信和强大,他对北约的抱怨也变得更加尖锐。他一再提到美国在乌克兰部署弹道导弹和作战部队,尽管美国、乌克兰和北约官员坚称没有这种情况。

Mr. Putin has also insisted that Ukraine is fundamentally parts of Russia, culturally and historically.

普京还坚称,从文化和历史上看,乌克兰从根本上说是俄罗斯的一部分。

East-West relations worsened drastically in early 2014, when mass protests in Ukraine forced out a president closely allied with Mr. Putin. Russia swiftly invaded and annexed Crimea, part of Ukraine. Moscow also fomented a separatist rebellion that took control of part of the Donbas region of Ukraine, in a war that still grinds on, having killed more than 13,000 people.

2014年初,东西方关系急剧恶化,乌克兰的大规模抗议活动迫使一名同普京关系密切的总统下台。俄罗斯迅速入侵并吞并了乌克兰的一部分——克里米亚。莫斯科还煽动了一场分离主义叛乱,控制了顿巴斯部分地区,这场至今仍在继续的战争已造成逾1.3万人死亡。

What does Putin want?

普京想要什么?


Mr. Putin appears intent on winding back the clock more than 30 years, establishing a broad, Russian-dominated security zone resembling the power Moscow wielded in Soviet days. Now 69 years old and possibly edging toward the twilight of his political career, he clearly wants to draw Ukraine, a nation of 44 million people, back into Russia’s sphere of influence.

普京似乎有意回到30多年前,建立一个广泛的、由俄罗斯主导的安全区,就像莫斯科在苏联时期所行使的权力一样。现年69岁的普京可能正走向政治生涯的暮年,他显然希望将有4400万人口的乌克兰拉回俄罗斯的势力范围。

Russia presented NATO and the United States in December with a set of written demands that it said were needed to ensure its security. Foremost among them are a guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO, that NATO draw down its forces in the Eastern European countries that have already joined, and that the 2015 cease-fire in Ukraine be implemented — though Moscow and Kyiv disagree sharply on what that would mean.

去年12月,俄罗斯向北约和美国提出了一系列书面要求,称这些是确保其安全所必需的条件。其中最重要的是保证乌克兰永远不会加入北约,北约从已加入该组织的东欧国家撤军,以及实施2015年在乌克兰的停火——但莫斯科和基辅对这一项的理解存在严重分歧。

The West dismissed the main demands out of hand. Moscow’s aggressive posture has also inflamed Ukrainian nationalism, with citizen militias preparing for a drawn-out guerrilla campaign in the event of a Russian occupation.

西方立即驳回了主要的要求。莫斯科的侵略姿态也激起了乌克兰的民族主义情绪,民兵已准备在俄罗斯占领的情况下进行旷日持久的游击战。

The Russian leader may also want to energize nationalists at home by focusing on an external threat, as he has in the past. Nevertheless, since the invasion began, thousands of Russians, some at great personal risk, have taken to the streets to protest the war.

这位俄罗斯领导人可能还想通过关注外部威胁来激发国内民族主义者的活力,就像他过去所做的那样。然而,自从入侵开始以来,成千上万的俄罗斯人——其中一些人冒着巨大的个人风险——走上街头抗议战争。

How is the United States responding?

美国是怎样应对的?


In early December, President Biden made clear that his administration was not considering sending troops to fight for Ukraine since, among other reasons, Ukraine is not a member of the NATO alliance and does not come under its commitment to collective defense.

12月初,拜登总统明确表示,他的政府不考虑派遣军队为乌克兰而战,其中一个原因是,乌克兰不是北约成员,不受其集体防御承诺的约束。

Instead, the United States has sent anti-tank and antiaircraft weapons to Ukraine, increased the American military presence in NATO countries bordering Russia, and ordered an additional 7,000 troops to Europe. The Pentagon also ordered the deployment of an armored brigade combat team to Germany to reassure skittish NATO allies in Eastern Europe. Administration officials also warned that the United States could throw its weight behind an Ukrainian insurgency.

作为替代,美国向乌克兰输送了反坦克和防空武器,在与俄罗斯接壤的北约国家增加了美国的军事存在,并下令向欧洲增兵7000人。五角大楼还下令向德国部署一个装甲旅战队,以安抚东欧那些担惊受怕的北约盟国。政府官员还警告称,美国可能会支持乌克兰的叛乱。

But the real cudgel is financial.

但真正的大棒是金融。

Mr. Biden, vowing to turn Mr. Putin into a “pariah,” has announced tough sanctions aimed at cutting off Russia’s largest banks and some oligarchs, from much of the global financial system and preventing the country from importing American technology critical to its defense, aerospace and maritime industries. Mr. Biden has also prohibited energy imports from Russia to the United States and issued sanctions against the company behind an energy pipeline connecting Russia to Germany.

拜登发誓要把普京变成一个“弃儿”,他宣布了严厉的制裁措施,旨在切断俄罗斯最大的银行和一些寡头与全球金融体系的大部分联系,并阻止该国进口对其国防至关重要的美国技术、航空航天和海运业。拜登还禁止从俄罗斯进口能源,并对连接俄罗斯和德国的能源管道背后的公司实施制裁。

Mr. Biden said the United States was freezing trillions of dollars in Russian assets, including the funds controlled by Russian elites and their families.

拜登表示,美国冻结了数万亿美元的俄罗斯资产,包括俄罗斯上层人物及其家人控制的资金。

Western governments have also vowed to freeze assets belonging to Mr. Putin, but very little is known about what he owns and where it might be. The Biden administration could also institute sanctions that could deprive Russians of their beloved next-generation phones, laptops and other gadgets.

西方政府还发誓要冻结属于普京的资产,但对于他拥有多少资产,以及这些资产在哪里,人们知之甚少。拜登政府还可以实施制裁,剥夺俄罗斯人喜爱的下一代手机、笔记本电脑和其他电子产品。

U.S. and European financial penalties and restrictions are throttling banks and other businesses in Russia, limiting the Russian government’s ability to use its enormous foreign currency reserves, and impeding millions of Russians from using their credit cards, accessing their bank deposits or traveling abroad.

美国和欧洲的经济处罚和制约正在阻碍俄罗斯的银行和其他企业,遏制了俄罗斯政府使用其庞大外汇储备的能力,并阻碍了数百万俄罗斯人使用信用卡、获取银行存款或出国旅行。

What’s at stake for Europe?

欧洲将面临什么样的风险?


At stake for Europe is the security structure that has helped keep the peace on the continent since World War II. Europeans were initially divided over how to respond to various forms of Russian aggression, and the conflict laid bare the fractures within the European Union and NATO. But outrage over Mr. Putin’s aggression has helped foster a unified front, and the E.U. unveiled penalties that they described as unprecedented for the bloc in terms of scale and reach. The foreign assets of wealthy individuals and businesses allied with the Kremlin have been frozen.

对欧洲而言,自“二战”以来维持着欧洲大陆和平的安全结构危在旦夕。欧洲人最初在如何应对俄罗斯各种形式的侵略问题上存在分歧,俄乌冲突暴露了欧盟和北约内部的裂痕。但对普京侵略行为的愤怒有助于建立统一战线,欧盟则公布了他们认为在规模和范围方面对这一区域来说前所未有的惩罚措施。与克里姆林宫结盟的富人和企业的外国资产已被冻结。

Europe has important trade ties with Russia, and stands to lose far more than the United States from sanctions. It is also dependent on Russian gas supplies, a weakness that Mr. Putin has exploited in past disputes.

欧洲与俄罗斯有着重要的贸易关系,在制裁中遭受的损失将远远超过美国。它还依赖俄罗斯的天然气供应,普京在过去的争端中利用了这一弱点。

Europe lost an invaluable negotiator with Moscow after the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who grew up in the east, speaks fluent Russia, and had developed a good working relationship with the Russian president. Her successor Olaf Scholz, has tried to take on a leadership role in the crisis, halting certification of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that would link his country with Russia — one of the strongest moves yet by the West to punish the Kremlin.

在东德长大、讲一口流利俄语并与俄罗斯总统建立了良好工作关系的总理安格拉·默克尔离任后,欧洲失去了与莫斯科的宝贵谈判代表。她的继任者奥拉夫·舒尔茨试图在危机中发挥领导作用,停止对连接德国与俄罗斯的北溪2号天然气管道的认证——这是西方迄今为止惩罚克里姆林宫的最有力举措之一。
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