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当战争幽灵再现,俄罗斯人的震惊、恐惧与忧虑

For Many Russians, a Deep Unease Over Gathering Specter of War
当战争幽灵再现,俄罗斯人的震惊、恐惧与忧虑

MOSCOW — Waiting for her friends on Moscow’s primly landscaped Boulevard Ring, Svetlana Kozakova admitted that she’d had a sleepless night. She kept checking the news on her phone after President Vladimir V. Putin’s aggrieved speech to the nation that all but threatened Ukraine with war.

莫斯科——在莫斯科林荫环路的拘谨景观之中,斯维特拉娜·科扎科娃正在等她的朋友,她承认昨晚是个不眠夜。在普京总统通过一场悲愤的全国演说向乌克兰发出战争威胁之后,她反复查看着手机上的新闻。

“Things are going to be very, very uncertain,” she said, “and, most likely, very sad.”

“局面会非常非常地动荡,”她说,“并且,很有可能会非常悲哀。”
 

战争的可能性是俄罗斯人最大的恐惧之一,直到最近,他们可能还将其视为胡编乱造。

For months, Russians of all political stripes tuned out American warnings that their country could soon invade Ukraine, dismissing them as an outlandish concoction in the West’s disinformation war with the Kremlin. But this week, after several television appearances by Mr. Putin stunned and scared some longtime observers, that sense of casual disregard has turned to a deep unease.

几个月来,美国一直在示警,称俄罗斯将会入侵乌克兰,对此持各种政治立场的俄罗斯人都充耳不闻,认为这只是西方对克里姆林宫的信息战,是毫无根据的捏造。但在这一周里,普京在电视上多次露面,让一些多年的观察人士大感震惊与恐惧,漫不经心变成了深切的忧虑。

Pollsters say that most Russians probably support Mr. Putin’s formal recognition of the Russian-backed territories in eastern Ukraine this week, especially because they had no choice in the matter and because no significant political force inside the country has advocated against it.

普京本周正式承认乌克兰东部由俄罗斯支持的几个地区独立,民调显示此举应该会得到大多数俄罗斯人的支持,这尤其是因为他们在这件事上并没有什么选择,这个国家也没有任何有影响力的政治力量在反对。

The gathering specter of war is a different matter altogether, though; in recent days, Russia has not seen any of the jubilation that accompanied the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

然而战争幽灵的聚集却是另一回事了;近几天,俄罗斯并没有出现2014年吞并克里米亚时的那种欢快气氛。

Going to war is one of Russians’ greatest fears, according to the Levada Center, an independent pollster. And after Mr. Putin’s angry speech and his cryptic televised meeting with his Security Council on Monday, that possibility lurched closer toward becoming reality.

据独立民调机构列瓦达中心的调查,卷入战争是俄罗斯人最大的恐惧之一。周一的那场愤怒的演说,以及普京和安全委员会进行的那场令人困惑的电视转播会议之后,战争进一步从可能向现实靠近。

“This hatred that you could read in him so clearly, it wasn’t fake,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a political analyst and former adviser to Mr. Putin, who acknowledged that this week’s events had forced him to revise his skepticism that the president would go to war against Ukraine. “This is not a game.”

“你可以清晰地读到他的仇恨,这不是装出来的,”政治分析师、前普京顾问格列布·帕罗夫斯基说,他承认最近一周的事态发展迫使他修正了自己的看法,他之前并不相信总统会对乌克兰动武。“这是来真的了。”

Many Russians still subscribe to the Kremlin narrative of a Russia forced to fight back against Western powers determined to destroy it. Mr. Putin’s speech, for all its emotion, was in tune with the grievances of many older Russians still smarting from the poverty that followed the fall of the Soviet Union and the lost prestige that accompanied it.

许多俄罗斯人仍然认同克里姆林宫的叙事,即俄罗斯面对誓要毁灭它的西方列强,被迫做出还击。普京的演说充满感情,与许多老一辈俄罗斯人的苦闷形成共鸣,他们至今仍在忍受着苏联崩塌后的贫困与荣光不在。

But for others, especially younger people, the sudden threat of war and of another downward spiral in relations with the West feel like the imminent loss of much of the freedom and opportunity that remains in Russia.

然而对其他一些俄罗斯人来说,尤其是相对年轻的人,突然降临的战争威胁,以及与西方的关系再一次的直线下降,让人感到在俄罗斯所剩无几的自由和机会正在消失。

Tigran Khachaturyan, a 20-year-old history student walking his corgi named Gatsby at central Moscow’s Patriarch’s Pond, said he knew from studying the past that the worsening international tensions would lead to decline inside the country. “I’ve seen many examples of states pursuing various imperial ambitions and forgetting about the very goal of the state: the welfare of the people who live in it,” Mr. Khachaturyan said. “I don’t support this policy and view it negatively.”

20岁的历史系学生提格兰·哈查图尔延在莫斯科中部的族长池遛的柯基犬盖茨比,他说,通过了解过去可以知道,国际关系的恶化会导致国家内部的衰落。“我看到许多国家去追求各种帝国野心,忘记了国家的根本目标:为了生活于其中的人民谋福利,”哈查图尔延说。“我不支持这个政策,对它持负面看法。”

And yet there is desperately little that Russians can do to change their country’s trajectory. That became even clearer after Monday’s Security Council meeting at which Mr. Putin at times browbeat and humiliated his most powerful and senior officials into telling him that he should recognize the separatist territories. The central message of this extraordinary spectacle of fealty, which the Kremlin taped, edited and aired on television, appeared to be that it was Mr. Putin alone who had the power to chart Russia’s course.

然而俄罗斯人基本上没有能力改变这个国家的轨迹。周一的安委会会议上,这一点更加清晰了,普京多次发出威吓和羞辱,强迫这些手握重权的高官来告诉他,他应该承认那些脱离乌克兰的地区的自治地位。这出精心编排的、不可思议的大戏是俄罗斯预先录制、编辑好后在电视上播放的,其核心讯息似乎是,只有普京一个人有权力决定俄罗斯去往何方。

In society, opposition to this aggressive policy has been muted. The liberal-minded activists who could have been expected to lead an antiwar movement have largely been exiled or imprisoned.

在社会上,反对这种侵略性政策的声音已经被压制。原本有望领导反战运动的自由派活动人士大多被流放或监禁。

This Sunday will mark the seventh anniversary of the murder in Moscow of the liberal politician Boris Nemtsov, one of the loudest voices inside Russia opposing the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny warned that Russia was about to “squander the historical chance for a normal rich life for the sake of war, dirt, lies” and Mr. Putin’s personal luxury — but Mr. Navalny was writing from prison, where he now faces an additional 15-year term.

本周日将是自由主义政治人士鲍里斯·涅姆佐夫在莫斯科被谋杀七周年,他是俄罗斯国内反对2014年吞并克里米亚的最响亮声音之一。反对派领导人阿列克谢·A·纳瓦尔尼警告称,俄罗斯将“浪费过上正常富裕生活的历史机会,只是为了战争、肮脏和谎言”——还有普京个人的奢侈生活——但纳瓦尔尼是在监狱里写作,他现在面临额外的15年刑期。

Some in the Russian public are starting to speak out. In St. Petersburg on Wednesday, one activist stood on a busy sidewalk holding up a copy of Russia’s most famous antiwar painting, “The Apotheosis of War” by Vasily Vereshchagin. The 19th-century painter had dedicated the work, showing a stack of skulls on a sun-parched field, “to all great conquerors, past, present and future.”

俄罗斯公众中的一些人开始发声。周三,在圣彼得堡,一名活动人士站在繁忙的人行道上,举着一幅俄罗斯最著名的反战画作——瓦西里·韦列沙金的《战争的神化》的复制品,画中是烈日炙烤的田野上的一堆骷髅,这位19世纪的画家将这幅作品献给“所有伟大的征服者,无论是过去、现在还是未来”。

An online magazine, Kholod, started a social media campaign called “I’m not silent” that encouraged readers to post about why they opposed war.

在线杂志《Kholod》发起了一项名为“我不沉默”的社交媒体活动,鼓励读者说出他们为什么反对战争。

“It has become impossible to ignore what has been happening in recent days,” the magazine’s editor, Taisia Bekbulatova, wrote on Facebook on Monday. “Many people say that they wake up every day with the thought that war might have broken out. This is some kind of madness.”

“最近几天发生的事情已经不可能忽视,”该杂志的编辑泰西亚·贝克布拉托娃周一在Facebook上写道。“很多人说,他们每天醒来的时候都觉得战争有可能爆发。这是一种疯狂。”

And one of Russia’s most popular YouTubers, the journalist Yuri Dud, posted a photograph of Mr. Putin’s Security Council meeting on Instagram on Tuesday and quoted a Russian musician saying he experienced “endless feelings of shame and guilt” over what his country had done to Ukraine.

周二,俄罗斯最受欢迎的Youtube创作者之一、记者尤里·杜德在Instagram上发布了一张普京在安委会会议上的照片,并引用一位俄罗斯音乐家的话称,他对自己的国家对乌克兰所做的事情感到“无尽的羞耻和愧疚”。

“I grew up in Russia and Russia is my homeland,” Mr. Dud wrote. “But I wish maximum support in these days to Ukraine — the homeland of my relatives and the home of my friends.”

“我在俄罗斯长大,俄罗斯是我的祖国,”杜德写道。“但我希望在这些日子里对乌克兰给予最大的支持,那里是我亲人们的祖国和我朋友们的家园。”

The idea of a war with Ukraine is unfathomable to many Russians in part because millions of them have friends and relatives there. Mr. Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was popular both because so many Russians felt a personal attachment to the Soviet-era vacationland and because it was accomplished without a shot being fired.

对许多俄罗斯人来说,与乌克兰开战的想法是难以理解的,部分原因是他们当中有数以百万计的人在乌克兰有朋友和亲戚。2014年,普京对克里米亚的吞并之所以广受欢迎,一方面是因为很多俄罗斯人对这个苏联时代的度假胜地怀有个人感情,另一方面是因为这是在没有开火的情况下完成的。

The Kremlin has explained its support for the Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine as a necessary, humanitarian intervention to aid brethren under attack by a nationalist, illegitimate government. Many Russians accept that false narrative, which is one reason more than half of those surveyed told Levada, the pollster, last year that they would support the separatist territories’ independence or their annexation to Russia.

克里姆林宫将其对乌克兰东部由俄罗斯支持的分裂分子的支持解释为必要的人道主义干预,目的是帮助那些受到非法的民族主义政府攻击的同胞。许多俄罗斯人接受了这种错误的说法,因此,去年有超过一半的受访者告诉民调机构列瓦达,他们会支持分离主义地区的独立或并入俄罗斯。

Levada’s director, Denis Volkov, said that the center’s preliminary analysis of a survey conducted last week — before Mr. Putin made his decision to recognize the territories — also showed most Russians backing recognition or annexation. He said that support derived from the view promoted by the Kremlin that backing the separatists would help avert further bloodshed.

列瓦达的主管丹尼斯·沃尔科夫说,该中心对上周一项调查的初步分析也显示,大多数俄罗斯人支持承认或吞并这些领土——这是在普京做出承认这些领土的决定之前。他说,这种支持源于克里姆林宫的一种观点,即支持分裂将有助于避免进一步的流血冲突。

Many analysts say that the opposite is true, with Mr. Putin massing roughly 190,000 troops around Ukraine — according to the Pentagon — and the separatists claiming three times as much territory as their own as they currently control. Western officials say tens of thousands could be killed in a war, and that Ukrainians trying to flee to the West could create a humanitarian crisis.

许多分析人士说,事实恰恰相反,根据五角大楼的说法,普京在乌克兰周围部署了大约19万军队,而分离主义者的领土主张是他们目前实际控制领土的三倍。西方官员说,战争可能会造成数以万计的死亡,试图逃往西方的乌克兰人可能会造成人道主义危机。

But with prominent opposition voices largely silenced, there are few people left to make that case to Russians directly.

但由于主要的反对派声音基本上被压制,已经没有什么人可以直接向俄罗斯人提出这个理由了。

“One reason the official interpretation of this situation predominates,” Mr. Volkov said, is “because practically no significant, authoritative, independent politicians remain.”

“官方对这种情况的解释占主导地位的一个原因是,”沃尔科夫说,“实际上已经没有重要的、权威的、独立的政治人士剩下来了。”

Still, while state media trumpeted Mr. Putin’s recognition of the separatist territories with great fanfare, Russians responded with none of the spontaneous euphoria that accompanied the annexation of Crimea. Eastern Ukraine — even to those who buy the Kremlin’s narrative about persecuted ethnic Russians in need of help — holds none of the emotional symbolism that Crimea did.

尽管官方媒体大张旗鼓地宣传普京承认这些分离主义领土,但俄罗斯人的反应却没有像吞并克里米亚时那样自发地欢欣鼓舞。对于他们来说,即使相信克里姆林宫关于受迫害的俄罗斯族人需要帮助的说法,乌克兰东部也没有克里米亚那样的情感象征意义。

In central Moscow this week, Aleksei Ivanov, 53, who works in a construction company, reflected that even the Crimea annexation had made him “neither richer nor happier.” Ever since, he said, it has felt like Russia’s leadership runs the country focused on their own goals.

本周在莫斯科市中心,现年53岁、在一家建筑公司工作的阿列克谢·伊万诺夫表示,即使吞并了克里米亚也没有让他“更富有或者更快乐”。他说,从那以后,感觉俄罗斯的领导层管理国家的重点是他们自己的目标。

“They want something, they have some plans,” he said. “Common people don’t fully get their true intentions.”

“他们想要一些东西,他们有一些计划,”他说。“普通人无法完全理解他们的真实意图。”
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