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是什么让纽约成了美国的疫情中心?

Density Is New York City’s Big ‘Enemy’ in the Coronavirus Fight
是什么让纽约成了美国的疫情中心?

New York has tried to slow the spread of the coronavirus by closing its schools, shutting down its nonessential businesses and urging its residents to stay home almost around the clock. But it faces a distinct obstacle in trying to stem new cases: its cheek-by-jowl density.

为减缓冠状病毒传播,纽约已经关闭了学校,令非必要商家停业,并敦促居民几乎全天待在家里。但在抑制新增病例方面,它面临着一个明显的障碍:摩肩接踵的人口密度。

New York is far more crowded than any other major city in the United States. It has 28,000 residents per square mile, while San Francisco, the next most jammed city, has 17,000, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

纽约比美国其他任何主要城市都要拥挤得多。美国人口普查局(U.S. Census Bureau)的数据显示,全市每平方英里有2.8万居民,人口密度排第二的城市旧金山每平方英里有1.7万居民。
 

周日,布鲁克林一个支票兑换点。官员建议人们保持六英尺的间距以防止冠状病毒传播。

All of those people, in such a small space, appear to have helped the virus spread rapidly through packed subway trains, busy playgrounds and hivelike apartment buildings, forming ever-widening circles of infections and making New York the nation’s epicenter of the outbreak.

在这么小的空间里,在拥挤的地铁、繁忙的操场和蜂巢般的公寓楼,所有人似乎都在帮助病毒迅速传播,形成不断扩大的感染范围,使纽约成为美国的疫情中心。

“Density is really an enemy in a situation like this,” said Dr. Steven Goodman, an epidemiologist at Stanford University. “With large population centers, where people are interacting with more people all the time, that’s where it’s going to spread the fastest.”

“在这种情况下,人口密度确实是敌人,”斯坦福大学(Stanford University)流行病学家史蒂文·古德曼(Steven Goodman)博士说。“在人口密集中心,人们随时都在与更多的人互动,所以它就会成为病毒传播最快的地方。”

The challenge facing New York and other tightly cramped cities around the United States can be seen by comparing the country’s largest city to its second biggest, Los Angeles.

纽约是美国最大的城市,将它和美国第二大城市洛杉矶进行比较,就可以看出它和其他拥挤的美国城市所面临的挑战。

As of Monday, there were more than 13,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus in New York and about 500 in Los Angeles. New York reported 125 deaths; Los Angeles reported seven.

截至周一,纽约的冠状病毒确诊病例超过1.3万例,洛杉矶约有500例。纽约报告了125例死亡;洛杉矶报告了7名。

The population of Los Angeles is about half of New York’s, and it has conducted significantly fewer tests for the coronavirus. But researchers said one of the biggest reasons for the difference may be that in general, California residents live further apart from each other.

洛杉矶的人口大约是纽约的一半,而且对冠状病毒的检测也少得多。但研究人员表示,造成这种差异的最大原因之一可能是,加州的居住环境整体而言间距较大。

“Out here, we’re spread out,” said Dr. Lee Riley, professor of infectious diseases at the University of California Berkeley School of Public Health. “People use cars, the public transportation system is terrible. Whereas in New York City, you have the subways, the buses, Times Square, people living in your small apartment buildings.”

“在这里,我们被分散开来,”加州大学伯克利分校公共卫生学院(University of California Berkeley School of Public Health)传染病学教授李·赖利(Lee Riley)博士说。“大家都开车,公共交通系统很糟糕。而在纽约,你们有地铁、公交车、时报广场,住在自己的小公寓楼里。”

By almost any measure, New York has more bustling humanity living, working and playing side-by-side than anywhere in the country.

无论以何种标准衡量,纽约的生活、工作和娱乐比美国任何地方都要拥挤热闹。

On an average workday, more than 5 million people jostle onto the city’s subway trains — as many trips as Los Angeles sees in half a month. Far more people live in cramped public housing units in New York — 400,000 — than in any other city. And nearly 40 million people visit Times Square every year, making it one of the busiest tourist attractions in the world.

在一个普通的工作日,会有超过500万人挤上这座城市的地铁——这是洛杉矶半个月的地铁出行人数。纽约有40万人居住在拥挤的公共住房里,远远超过其他任何城市。每年参观时报广场的人数将近4000万人,使其成为世界上最繁忙的旅游景点之一。

In the past weeks, as the coronavirus crept into the country, that crush of people was a vulnerable target.

在过去几周,随着冠状病毒蔓延到这个国家,拥挤的人群成了易感的目标。

Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, said on Monday that the “attack rate” — the percentage of the population infected with the virus — was nearly one in 1,000 in the New York area, five times higher than in other parts of the country.

白宫冠状病毒应对协调员黛博拉·L·比尔克斯(Deborah L. Birx)博士周一表示,纽约地区的“发病率”——即感染该病毒的人口占比——接近千分之一,是美国其他地区的五倍。

“So, to all of my friends and colleagues in New York, this is the group that needs to absolutely social distance and self-isolate at this time,” she said. “Clearly, the virus had been circulating there for a number of weeks to have this level of penetrance into the general community.”

“所以,我要对纽约的所有朋友和同事们说,这个群体在这个时候需要绝对的社交距离和自我隔离,”她说。“很明显,这种病毒已经在这里传播了几周,达到了渗入普通社区的程度。”

Concerns about density were also at the forefront as New York officials discussed the spread of the virus in increasingly alarmed tones. New York City is now among the worst hot spots in the world: The city now has more coronavirus cases per capita than Italy, the world’s epicenter of the virus outside of China, where it originated.

随着纽约官员在讨论该病毒传播时越来越警惕,对病毒密度的担忧也成了前沿问题。纽约现在是世界上最严重的热点城市之一:这个城市现在的人均冠状病毒病例比意大利还多。

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said more than 20,000 people throughout New York state had tested positive for the virus so far, and 157 had died. More than 2,600 remained hospitalized.

州长安德鲁·科莫(Andrew Cuomo)说,到目前为止,纽约州有2万多人病毒检测呈阳性,157人死亡。2600多人仍在住院。

Hospitals across New York City and surrounding areas reported increasing numbers of cases as administrators announced new restrictions on visitors, and workers warned about shortages in protective equipment. Mr. Cuomo announced plans to send hundreds of thousands of masks, gloves and gowns to health care facilities, and said the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in Manhattan would be repurposed into four “emergency hospitals.”

纽约市及周边地区的医院报告了日益增多的病例,院方宣布对医院访客实行新的限制,而且医护人员警告防护装备短缺。科莫宣布计划向医疗机构发放数十万件口罩、手套和防护服,并说曼哈顿的雅各布·K·贾维茨会展中心(Jacob K. Javits Convention Center)将被改建为4所“紧急医院”。

But he said that initial measures to control the spread of the virus were not working, especially in New York City, where people had been gathering in parks over the weekend and not staying far enough away from each other.

但是他说,控制病毒传播的最初措施没有奏效,尤其是在纽约,人们周末聚集在公园里,彼此之间没有保持足够的距离。

He said he was still awaiting a plan from the city to prevent residents — especially young people — from getting too close, perhaps by imposing more controls on public spaces and opening some streets to pedestrians.

他说,他仍在等待纽约市的一项计划以防止居民——特别是年轻人——过近接触,可能会通过对公共场所实施更多控制并向行人开放一些街道。

“I touch this table — the virus could live here for two days. You come tomorrow, I’m gone, you touch that spot,” Mr. Cuomo said. “In New York City, all that density, a lot of people are touching a lot of spots, right? Park bench, grocery counters. Just picture the city in daily life.”

“我触摸了这张桌子——病毒可能在这里停留了两天。我走了,明天你来,触摸到那个地方,”科莫说。“在纽约市如此密集的地方,很多人都在触摸到很多地方,对吧?公园长椅、杂货店柜台。想想这座城市的日常生活吧。”

Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida said on Monday that he would sign an executive order directing the state’s surgeon general to require anyone flying to the state from New York or New Jersey to observe a mandatory 14-day quarantine.

佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)周一表示,他将签署一项行政命令,指示该州医疗总监要求任何从纽约或新泽西飞往该州的人必须遵守14天的强制隔离规定。

Many coronavirus cases in Florida, especially in counties that include Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, have been tied to New York, and a recent uptick in travel from the region suggested New Yorkers were flying to Florida to flee restrictions.

佛罗里达州的许多冠状病毒病例,特别是在包括迈阿密、劳德代尔堡和西棕榈滩在内的县,都与纽约有关,最近该地区旅行频增,表明纽约人正飞往佛罗里达以逃避限制。

Coronavirus appears to spread from person-to-person through droplets produced by coughing, sneezing and spitting, according to the initial research. It is mostly transmitted by people with symptoms of the virus, but asymptomatic transmission also appears possible.

根据最初的研究,冠状病毒似乎是通过咳嗽、打喷嚏和吐痰产生的飞沫在人与人之间传播的。它主要由有病毒症状的人传播,但无症状传播也有可能。

It has spread throughout the world, including in cities and countries that are not very crowded.

病毒已经蔓延至全世界,包括在人口不太稠密的城市和国家。

No American city is like New York, a regional economic hub that is also a magnet for international commerce and tourism, drawing in 60 million visitors a year. Before the onset of the coronavirus ground the city to a halt, more than 3,000 planes were landing at its airports every day.

没有哪个美国城市像纽约一样——作为一个区域经济中心,同时吸引着国际商业和旅游业,每年带来6000万旅客。在冠状病毒暴发使城市陷入停滞之前,每天有超过3000架飞机降落在这里的机场。

Drawing in travelers and commuters from neighboring states, the city holds about 10 million people at any given time.

这座城市吸引了来自邻近州的旅行者和通勤者,时刻容纳着约1000万人。

Certainly, there may be other reasons aside from density that cities such as Los Angeles have such a lower rate of coronavirus cases compared with New York, researchers said.

研究人员说,当然,除了密度之外,还有其他原因可能导致洛杉矶等城市的冠状病毒感染率比纽约低。

Los Angeles has taken longer to implement widespread testing, and it has partially shied away from testing, fearing that it would waste resources. Andrea Garcia, a spokeswoman for Mayor Eric Garcetti, said that there were four testing sites in the city, but the locations were only disclosed to those who qualified for the test.

洛杉矶更晚开始广泛的检测,并且因为担心会浪费资源而避免了部分检测。市长埃里克·加塞蒂(Eric Garcetti)的女发言人安德里亚·加西亚(Andrea Garcia)说,该市有4个检测点,但位置只透露给有资格接受检测的人。

On Monday, officials in Los Angeles County said they planned to significantly increase its testing soon.

周一,洛杉矶县官员表示打算尽快大幅增加检测。

Another factor in the differing rates between New York and Los Angeles may be the warmer weather in Southern California, a climate that some early analysis suggests may slow the spread of the virus.

影响纽约和洛杉矶感染率差异的另一个因素可能是南加州更温暖的天气,一些早期分析表明这种气候可能会减缓病毒的传播。

Regions with average temperatures above 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit (or 18 degrees Celsius) account for fewer than 6 percent of global cases so far, according to researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的研究人员称,迄今为止,平均气温高于华氏64.4度(摄氏18度)的地区的病例所占比例不足全球病例的6%。

Other possible factors include better containment measures, or just the randomness of who happened to contract the virus first, and where they went.

其他可能的因素包括更好的遏制措施,或者只是第一个被感染者的随机性,以及感染者的去向。

Still, public health experts said that density was likely the biggest reason for why the virus has torn through New York City and not yet hit to the same degree elsewhere. They urged other cities and towns around the country to pay attention.

不过,公共卫生专家表示,病毒之所以在纽约市蔓延,而其他城市尚未遭受同样程度的疫情,密度可能是最大的原因。他们敦促全国其他城镇留意关注。

“New York City is often the first to get hit because of how dense it is, and how many international travelers come through,” said Thomas R. Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as the New York City health department. “The question now is whether the rest of the U.S. will learn from New York and avoid the situation that it is facing and is likely to get worse in the coming days and weeks.”

“纽约市往往是最先受到冲击的,因为人口稠密,而且有非常多的国际旅客进来,”纽约市疾病预防控制中心及纽约卫生部门前主任托马斯·R·弗里登(Thomas R. Frieden)表示。“现在的问题是,美国其他地区是否会吸取纽约的教训,避免它所面临的可能在未来几天和几周内恶化的局势。”
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