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普京称制裁未破坏俄罗斯经济

Bleak assessments of the Russian economy clash with Putin’s rosy claims.
普京称制裁未破坏俄罗斯经济

Russia’s central bank chief warned on Monday that the consequences of Western sanctions were only beginning to be felt, and Moscow’s mayor said that 200,000 jobs were at risk in the Russian capital alone, stark acknowledgments that undermined President Vladimir V. Putin’s contention that sanctions had failed to destabilize the Russian economy.

俄罗斯中央银行行长周一警告表示,西方制裁的后果才刚刚开始被感受到,莫斯科市长称,仅在俄罗斯首都就有20万个工作岗位面临风险,这些对严酷现实的承认削弱了普京总统关于制裁未能破坏俄罗斯经济稳定的论点。

The bleak assessments from two senior officials align with the forecast of many experts that Russia faces a steep economic downturn as its inventory of imported goods and parts runs low. How Russians react to the financial hardships resulting from Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will determine in part whether anything can weaken the Russian leader’s grip on power or sap support for the war.

两名高级官员的悲观评估与许多专家的预测一致——随着俄罗斯进口商品和零部件库存下降,俄罗斯将面临严重的经济衰退。俄罗斯人对普京入侵乌克兰所造成财政困难的反应,将在一定程度上决定是否会有什么可以削弱俄罗斯领导人对权力的掌控,或削弱人们对战争的支持。
 

与俄罗斯总统普京的乐观态度相反,两名俄罗斯高级官员周一警告称,真正的经济阵痛尚未到来。

Russia’s economy has avoided a crippling collapse for now, but more sanctions are on the way that would further increase the economic pain. The European Union is formulating a plan to curb imports of Russian oil. And Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen is expected to call on American allies to increase economic pressure on Russia at the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, according to a Treasury official.

俄罗斯经济暂时避免了严重崩溃,但更多的制裁措施即将出台,这将进一步加剧经济痛苦。欧盟正在制定一项计划,限制从俄罗斯进口石油。据一名财政部官员透露,在本周于华盛顿举行的世界银行和国际货币基金组织春季会议上,预计美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦将呼吁美国盟友加大对俄罗斯的经济压力。

Estimates from international financial organizations of the contraction in the Russian economy range from 10 to 15 percent. On Monday, the Russian central bank said on its website that consumer prices on average were 16.7 percent higher than they were a year ago.

国际金融组织估计,俄罗斯经济收缩幅度在10%到15%之间。周一,俄罗斯央行在其网站上表示,消费者价格平均比一年前高出16.7%。

Wally Adeyemo, deputy secretary of the U.S. Treasury, predicted during an economic conference on Monday that Russian inflation would soar and imports would plummet, leaving the Kremlin “with fewer resources to prop up the Russian economy, pursue its invasion in Ukraine and project power in the future.”

美国财政部副部长沃利·阿德耶莫周一在经济会议上预测,俄罗斯的通胀将飙升,进口将大幅下降,这将导致克里姆林宫“支撑俄罗斯经济、入侵乌克兰和未来投射实力的资源减少”。

But Mr. Putin projected an entirely different scenario on Monday, using the fact that the Russian economy had avoided a full-fledged panic to bolster his claim that the West’s punishing sanctions would not deter him.

但普京在周一描绘了一幅截然不同的景象,他利用俄罗斯经济避免了全面恐慌的事实来支持自己的说法,称西方的惩罚性制裁无法阻止他。

Western penalties, he said in a televised videoconference with senior officials, were meant to “rapidly undermine the financial and economic situation in our country, provoke panic in the markets, the collapse of the banking system and a large-scale shortage of goods in stores.”

他在与高级官员的视频会议上表示,西方的惩罚旨在“迅速破坏我国的金融和经济形势,激起市场恐慌,导致银行体系崩溃,令商店出现大规模商品短缺”。

“But we can already confidently say that this policy toward Russia has failed,” he went on. “The strategy of an economic blitzkrieg has failed.”

“但我们已经可以自信地说,这种针对俄罗斯的政策已经失败,”他还说。“经济闪电战的战略失败了。”

Mr. Putin was in part addressing a domestic audience, seeking to reassure Russians who have had to endure fears of cash shortages, a battered stock market and the shuttering of popular Western retailers like Ikea. He has a powerful state propaganda machine to amplify his message.

普京在一定程度上是在对国内观众讲话,试图安抚那些不得不忍受现金短缺、股市受挫以及宜家等受欢迎的西方零售商关门停业的俄罗斯人。他有一个强大的国家宣传机器来扩大他的讯息。

Mr. Putin said he was prepared to increase government spending to stimulate the economy, an indication that continued revenues from energy exports were giving the Kremlin the flexibility to soften the blow of sanctions. Europe’s energy purchases inject more than $800 million each day into the Russian economy, according to Bruegel, an economics institute in Brussels.

普京表示,他准备增加政府支出来刺激经济,这表明能源出口带来的持续收入给了克里姆林宫减轻制裁打击的灵活性。布鲁塞尔经济研究机构勃鲁盖尔的数据显示,欧洲的能源采购每天为俄罗斯经济注入逾8亿美元。

Aggressive capital controls imposed by the central bank have helped the ruble recover from its crash in the days after the invasion. The central bank has also raised interest rates to induce savers to keep their money in the bank, although the high rate makes it more expensive to borrow money to invest. And there are few reports of major layoffs or extensive food shortages in grocery stores.

俄罗斯央行下重手实施资本管制,帮助卢布在入侵后的几天内从崩溃中恢复过来。央行还提高了利率,吸引储户把钱存在银行,尽管高利率使借钱投资的成本更高。而且很少有关于大规模裁员或杂货店严重食品短缺的报告。

But contrary to Mr. Putin’s optimism, two top officials cautioned on Monday that more economic hardship was looming. Mayor Sergei S. Sobyanin of Moscow announced a $40 million program to help people laid off by foreign companies find temporary employment and new jobs. According to his office’s estimates, he said, “around 200,000 people are at risk of losing their jobs” in the city of 13 million.

但与普京的乐观态度相反,两名高级官员周一警告称,更多的经济困难正在逼近。莫斯科市长谢尔盖·索比亚宁宣布了一项4000万美元的计划,旨在帮助被外国公司解雇的人找到临时工作和新工作。他说,根据他的办公室的估计,在这个拥有1300万人口的城市,“大约有20万人面临失业的风险”。

Mr. Sobyanin wrote in a blog post that the newly unemployed could work in the city’s parks, service centers and public health pavilions, “an opportunity to do useful work and acquire new skills.”

索比亚宁在一篇博客文章中写道,新失业的人可以在该市的公园、服务中心和公共卫生馆工作,“这是做有用的工作和获得新技能的机会。”

In an appearance at the lower house of Parliament, Elvira Nabiullina, the chairwoman of the Russian central bank, gave a more far-reaching, negative assessment. She told lawmakers that while the sanctions’ impact had largely been on the financial markets at first, they “will now begin to increasingly affect the real sectors of the economy.”

俄罗斯央行主席埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜在议会下院的发言从更广泛层面上表达了负面看法。她对议员们说,虽然制裁最初主要对金融市场产生了影响,但它们“现在将开始越来越多地影响实体经济部门”。

For example, she said, “practically every product” manufactured in Russia relies on imported components. Factories for now may still have them in stock. But because of new Western export restrictions, Russian companies will be forced to shift their supply chains or start making their own components, she said.

例如,她说,俄罗斯制造的“几乎所有产品”都依赖进口零部件。目前工厂可能仍有库存。但她说,由于西方新的出口限制,俄罗斯企业将被迫转移供应链,或开始自己生产零部件。

“At the moment, perhaps this problem is not yet so strongly felt, because there are still reserves in the economy, but we see that sanctions are being tightened almost every day,” she said. “The period during which the economy can live on reserves is finite.”

“目前,这个问题可能还没有那么严重,因为经济中仍然有储备,但我们看到制裁几乎每天都在收紧,”她说。“依靠储备维持经济的时间是有限的。”

Ms. Nabiullina, an internationally respected central banker who reportedly tried to resign in the days after the war, said about half of the central bank’s $600 billion foreign currency and gold reserves remained frozen because of sanctions. Those reserves that the bank still controlled, she said, were mainly gold and Chinese yuan — of little use in trying to stabilize the ruble — forcing the bank to resort to capital controls like limiting how much foreign currency could be taken out of the country.

纳比乌林娜是一位在国际上备受尊敬的央行行长,据报道,她在开战几天后曾试图辞职。她说,由于制裁,央行6000亿美元的外汇和黄金储备中约有一半仍处于冻结状态。她表示,银行仍然控制的储备主要是黄金和人民币——对稳定卢布几乎没有作用——这迫使银行采取资本控制措施,比如限制多少外汇可以带出国。

“They just cannot continue because they don’t have Western inputs, and it will take years and trillions of dollars to create their own supply chains,” said Michael S. Bernstam, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的研究员迈克尔·伯恩斯坦说,“他们无法继续下去,因为他们没有西方的投入,要建立自己的供应链需要花费数年时间和数万亿美元。”

“Even their most important industries are in trouble,” Mr. Bernstam said, referring to gas and oil.

“就连他们最重要的行业也陷入了困境,”伯恩斯坦说,他指的是天然气和石油。

The central bank is talking about recapitalizing banks and reducing capital requirements to half of what they were previously, which Mr. Bernstam interpreted as a sign that banks risk insolvency.

俄罗斯央行正在讨论对银行进行资本重组,并将资本要求降低到原来的一半。伯恩斯坦认为,这是银行面临破产风险的一个信号。

In his televised videoconference later in the day with Ms. Nabiullina and several other officials, Mr. Putin acknowledged that the Russian economy did face some problems, including inflation. He said he had already directed the pensions and salaries of state employees — part of Mr. Putin’s political base — to be adjusted for inflation, and he indicated that he supported greater government spending to stimulate the economy.

在当天晚些时候与纳比乌林娜和其他几名官员举行的电视视频会议上,普京承认,俄罗斯经济确实面临一些问题,包括通货膨胀。他说,他已经指示根据通货膨胀调整国家雇员的养老金和工资——国家雇员群体属于普京的政治基础,他还表示支持加大政府支出来刺激经济。

“The budget should actively support the economy, saturate the economy with financial resources, and maintain its liquidity,” Mr. Putin said. “There are opportunities for this. Of course, we need to act carefully.”

“预算应该积极支持经济,为经济注入充足的金融资源,并保持其流动性,”普京说。“这是有机会的。当然,我们需要谨慎行事。”

But as he has in the past, Mr. Putin couched the acknowledgment of economic challenges in Russia with the insistence that its adversaries were faring far worse. He told officials that because of its sanctions against Russia, the West was seeing “the growth of inflation and unemployment” and “the decline in the standard of living of Europeans.”

但与过去一样,普京在暗示承认俄罗斯面临经济挑战的同时,坚称对手的情况要糟糕得多。他告诉官员们,由于对俄罗斯的制裁,西方出现“通货膨胀和失业增长”以及“欧洲人生活水平下降”。

It was an echo of a common refrain on Russian state television, which has been airing frequent reports on rising energy prices in Europe and the United States. The Kremlin’s message to the Russian public is that it is only a matter of time before Western unity over the invasion of Ukraine collapses.

这是对俄罗斯国家电视台一个常见说法的呼应。俄罗斯国家电视台经常播放有关欧洲和美国能源价格上涨的报道。克里姆林宫向俄罗斯公众传达的信息是,西方在入侵乌克兰问题上的团结出现瓦解只是时间问题。

On Sunday, Dmitri A. Medvedev, the vice chairman of Mr. Putin’s security council, wrote in a social media post that “hyperinflation” in Europe would soon stoke protests in the form of “smelly bonfires made of tires on the streets of well-groomed European cities.”

周日,普京的安全委员会副主席德米特里·梅德韦杰夫在社交媒体上发帖称,欧洲的“恶性通货膨胀”很快就会引发抗议,“在整洁的欧洲城市的街道上,轮胎燃起散发恶臭的篝火。”

He added: “Then the Brussels aunts and uncles will have to change their rhetoric.”

他还说:“到那时,布鲁塞尔的叔叔阿姨们将不得不改变他们的言辞。”
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