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乌克兰危机将如何影响全球经济

What’s at Stake for the Global Economy as Conflict Looms in Ukraine
乌克兰危机将如何影响全球经济

After getting battered by the pandemic, supply chain chokeholds and leaps in prices, the global economy is poised to be sent on yet another unpredictable course by an armed clash on Europe’s border.

在受到大流行、供应链受阻和价格暴涨的打击之后,全球经济将因欧洲边境的武装冲突而走上又一条不可预测的道路。

Even before the Kremlin ordered Russian troops into separatist territories of Ukraine on Monday, the tension had taken a toll. The promise of punishing sanctions in return by President Biden and the potential for Russian retaliation had already pushed down stock returns and driven up gas prices.

早在克里姆林宫周一下令俄罗斯军队进入寻求分裂的乌克兰地区之前,紧张局势就已经造成了损失。拜登总统以严厉制裁作为回应的承诺以及俄罗斯进行报复的可能性已经压低了股票回报并推高了汽油价格。
 

乌克兰敖德萨的海港。俄罗斯对乌克兰的进攻可能会导致食品和能源价格大幅上涨。

An outright attack by Russian troops could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices, fuel inflation fears and spook investors, a combination that threatens investment and growth in economies around the world.

俄罗斯军队的直接攻击可能会导致能源和食品价格飙升,加剧通胀担忧并吓跑投资者,这些因素会威胁到全球经济体的投资和增长。

However harsh the effects, the immediate impact will be nowhere near as devastating as the sudden economic shutdowns first caused by the coronavirus in 2020. Russia is a transcontinental behemoth with 146 million people and a huge nuclear arsenal, as well as a key supplier of the oil, gas and raw materials that keep the world’s factories running. But unlike China, which is a manufacturing powerhouse and intimately woven into intricate supply chains, Russia is a minor player in the global economy.

无论影响多么严重,其直接影响远不及2020年由新冠病毒首次造成的经济骤然停摆那样具有破坏性。俄罗斯是一个横贯大陆的巨型国家,拥有1.46亿人口和庞大的核武库,也是维持世界工厂运转的石油、天然气和原材料的供应国。但与中国不同,中国是紧密融入错综复杂供应链的制造业强国,而俄罗斯在全球经济中只是一个小角色。

Italy, with half the people and fewer natural resources, has an economy that is twice the size. Poland exports more goods to the European Union than Russia.

意大利的人口约为俄罗斯的一半,自然资源相对较少,但其经济规模是俄罗斯的两倍。波兰向欧盟出口的商品比俄罗斯多。

“Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who was an adviser to President Barack Obama. “It’s basically a big gas station.”

“除了石油和天然气,俄罗斯在全球经济中毫不重要,这令人难以置信,”哈佛大学经济学家、贝拉克·奥巴马总统顾问杰森·弗曼说。“它基本上是一个大加油站。”

Of course, a closed gas station can be crippling for those who depend on it. The result is that any economic damage will be unevenly spread, intense in some countries and industries and unnoticed in others.

当然,一个关闭的加油站对于那些依赖它的人来说可能导致严重损失。其结果是经济损失分布不均匀,一些国家和行业受损严重,而在另一些国家和行业中则不会引起注意。

Europe gets nearly 40 percent of its natural gas and 25 percent of its oil from Russia, and is likely to be walloped with spikes in heating and gas bills, which are already soaring. Natural gas reserves are at less than a third of capacity, with weeks of cold weather ahead, and European leaders have already accused Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, of reducing supplies to gain a political edge.

欧洲近40%的天然气和25%的石油来自俄罗斯,并且很可能会受到已经飙升的供暖和天然气费用的冲击。由于未来数周的寒冷天气,天然气储量不到总容量的三分之一,欧洲领导人已经指责俄罗斯总统普京为了获取政治优势而减少供应。

And then there are food prices, which have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade largely because of the pandemic’s supply chain mess, according to a recent United Nations report. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat, and together with Ukraine, accounts for nearly a quarter of total global exports. For some countries, the dependence is much greater. That flow of grain makes up more than 70 percent of Egypt and Turkey’s total wheat imports.

此外,根据联合国最近的一份报告,食品价格已攀升至十多年来的最高水平,大流行导致的供应链混乱是主要原因。俄罗斯是世界上最大的小麦供应国,与乌克兰一起占全球出口总量的近四分之一。一些国家对小麦的依赖性更高。来自那里的小麦占埃及和土耳其小麦进口总量的70%以上。

This will put further strain on Turkey, which is already in the middle of an economic crisis and struggling with inflation that is running close to 50 percent, with skyrocketing food, fuel and electricity prices.

这将给土耳其带来进一步的压力,该国已经处于经济危机之中,并且正在努力应对接近50%的通货膨胀,食品、燃料和用电价格飞涨。

And as usual, the burden falls heaviest on the most vulnerable. “Poorer people spend a higher share of incomes on food and heating,” said Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University.

和往常一样,最脆弱的群体承受着最重的负担。牛津大学全球化与发展学教授伊恩·戈尔丁说:“穷人在食物和取暖方面花费占收入比例更高。”

Ukraine, long known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” actually sends more than 40 percent of its wheat and corn exports to the Middle East or Africa, where there are worries that further food shortages and price increases could stoke social unrest.

长期以来被称为“欧洲粮仓”的乌克兰实际上将40%以上的小麦和玉米出口运送到中东或非洲,人们担心进一步的粮食短缺和价格上涨可能引发社会动荡。

Lebanon, for example, which is experiencing one of the most devastating economic crises in more than a century, gets more than half of its wheat from Ukraine, which is also the world’s largest exporter of seed oils like sunflower and rapeseed.

例如,黎巴嫩正经历一个多世纪以来最具破坏性的经济危机之一,其一半以上的小麦来自乌克兰,乌克兰也是世界上最大的葵花籽油和菜籽油等种子油的出口国。

On Monday, the White House responded to Mr. Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed territories in the country’s east by saying it would begin imposing limited sanctions on the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Mr. Biden would soon issue an executive order prohibiting investment, trade and financing with people in those regions.

对于普京承认乌克兰东部两个俄罗斯支持的区域独立的决定,白宫于周一作出回应,称将开始对所谓的顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克人民共和国实施有限制裁。白宫新闻秘书珍·萨基表示,拜登将很快发布一项行政命令,禁止与这些地区的人进行投资、贸易和融资交易。

Analysts watching the unfolding conflict have mapped out a range of scenarios from mild to severe. The fallout on working-class families and Wall Street traders depends on how an invasion plays out: whether Russian troops stay near the border or attack the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv; whether the fighting lasts for days or months; what kind of Western sanctions are imposed; and whether Mr. Putin responds by withholding critical gas supplies from Europe or launching insidious cyberattacks.

正在关注事态的分析人士已经列举了程度不一的一系列可能情况。冲突对工人阶级家庭和华尔街交易员各有什么样的影响,取决于入侵的结果:俄罗斯军队是留在边境附近还是袭击乌克兰首都基辅;战斗是持续几天还是几个月;西方实施了什么样的制裁;以及普京是否会通过暂停欧洲至关重要的天然气供应或发动阴险的网络攻击来做出回应。

“Think about it rolling out in stages,” said Julia Friedlander, director of the economic statecraft initiative at the Atlantic Council. “This is likely to play out as a slow motion drama.”

“估计会是分阶段展开的,”大西洋理事会经济治国计划主任朱莉娅·弗里德兰德说。“这很可能会以一种慢动作戏剧的形式上演。”

As became clear from the pandemic, minor interruptions in one region can generate major disruptions far away. Isolated shortages and price surges— whether of gas, wheat, aluminum or nickel — can snowball in a world still struggling to recover from the pandemic.

从大流行中可以清楚地看出,一个地区的轻微扰动可能会在遥远的地方产生重大破坏。世界仍在努力从大流行中恢复过来,孤立的短缺和价格飙升——无论是天然气、小麦、铝还是镍——都可能像滚雪球一样越来越严重。

“You have to look at the backdrop against which this is coming,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY-Parthenon. “There is high inflation, strained supply chains and uncertainty about what central banks are going to do and how insistent price rises are.”

“对于这种即将到来的情况,你必须考虑它所处的背景,”安永-帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示。“存在高通胀、供应链紧张,而且不确定央行会怎么做,也不确定物价上涨会持续多久。”

The additional stresses may be relatively small in isolation, but they are piling on economies that are still recovering from the economic body blows inflicted by the pandemic.

额外的压力单独来看可能相对不大,但它们堆积在仍在从大流行造成的打击中复苏的经济体上。

What’s also clear, Mr. Daco added, is that “political uncertainty and volatility weigh on economic activity.”

达科还说,还可以明确的是,“政治不确定性和波动性会影响经济活动。”

That means an invasion could have a dual effect — slowing economic activity and raising prices.

这意味着入侵可能会产生双重影响——经济活动放缓和价格上涨。

In the United States, the Federal Reserve is already confronting the highest inflation in 40 years, at 7.5 percent in January, and is expected to start raising interest rates next month. Higher energy prices set off by a conflict in Europe may be transitory but they could feed worries about a wage-price spiral.

在美国,美联储已经面临40年来的最高通胀,1月份为7.5%,预计下个月将开始加息。欧洲冲突引发的能源价格上涨可能是暂时的,但它们可能会引发对工资价格螺旋上升的担忧。

“We could see a new burst of inflation,” said Christopher Miller, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an assistant professor at Tufts University.

美国企业研究所客座研究员、塔夫茨大学助理教授克里斯托弗·米勒说:“我们可能会看到新一轮的通胀爆发。”

Also fueling inflation fears are possible shortages of essential metals like palladium, aluminum and nickel, creating another disruption to global supply chains already suffering from the pandemic, trucker blockades in Canada and shortages of semiconductors.

钯、铝和镍等基本金属可能会短缺,这也加剧了对通胀的担忧,这对已经遭受大流行、加拿大卡车司机罢工和半导体短缺影响的全球供应链造成了又一次破坏。

The price of palladium, for example, used in automotive exhaust systems, mobile phones and even dental fillings, has soared in recent weeks because of fears that Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the metal, could be cut off from global markets. The price of nickel, used to make steel and electric car batteries, has also been jumping.

例如,用于汽车排气系统、手机甚至齿科填充物的钯金属的价格在最近几周飙升,原因是担心这种金属的全球最大出口国俄罗斯可能会被全球市场拒之门外。用于制造钢铁和电动汽车电池的镍的价格也一直在上涨。

It’s too early to gauge the precise impact of an armed conflict, said Lars Stenqvist, the chief technology officer of Volvo, the Swedish truck maker. But he added, “It is a very, very serious thing.”

瑞典卡车制造商沃尔沃的首席技术官拉尔斯·斯滕奎斯特表示,现在评估武装冲突的确切影响还为时过早。但他还说,“这是一件非常非常严重的事情。”

“We have a number of scenarios on the table and we are following the developments of the situation day by day,” Mr. Stenqvist said Monday.

斯滕奎斯特周一表示:“我们需要考虑的情况有很多,我们每天都在关注事态的发展。”

The West has taken steps to blunt the impact on Europe if Mr. Putin decides to retaliate. The United States has ramped up delivery of liquefied natural gas and asked other suppliers like Qatar to do the same.

普京若要决定进行报复,西方已采取措施缓和对欧洲的影响。美国增加了液化天然气的供应,并要求卡塔尔等其他供应国也这样做。

The demand for oil might add momentum to negotiations to revive a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, which is estimated to have as many as 80 million barrels of oil in storage, has been locked out of much of the world’s markets since 2018, when President Donald J. Trump withdrew from the nuclear accord and reimposed sanctions.

对石油的需求可能会为恢复遏制伊朗核计划的协议增加谈判的动力。据估计,伊朗拥有多达8000万桶石油储备,自2018年特朗普总统退出核协议并重新实施制裁以来,它一直被排除在世界大部分市场之外。

Some of the sanctions against Russia that the Biden administration is considering, such as cutting off access to the system of international payments known as SWIFT or blocking companies from selling anything to Russia that contains American-made components, would hurt anyone who does business with Russia. But across the board, the United States is much less vulnerable than the European Union, which is Russia’s largest trading partner.

拜登政府正在考虑对俄罗斯实施的一些制裁措施——例如切断俄罗斯对被称为SWIFT的国际支付系统的访问权限,或阻止公司向俄罗斯出售任何含有美国制造组件的产品——将损害所有与俄罗斯有业务往来的人。但总体而言,美国的受损程度远不及俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴欧盟。

Americans, as Mr. Biden has already warned, are likely to see higher gasoline prices. But because the United States is itself a large producer of natural gas, those price increases are not nearly as steep and as broad as elsewhere. And Europe has many more links to Russia and engages in more financial transactions — including paying for the Russian gas.

正如拜登已经警告的那样,美国人可能会面临更高的汽油价格。但由于美国本身就是一个天然气生产大国,因此这些价格上涨幅度并不像其他地方那么剧烈和广泛。而欧洲与俄罗斯的联系更多,参与的金融交易也更多——包括购买俄罗斯天然气的交易。

Oil companies like Shell and Total have joint ventures in Russia, while BP boasts that it “is one of the biggest foreign investors in Russia,” with ties to the Russian oil company Rosneft. Airbus, the European aviation giant, gets titanium from Russia. And European banks, particularly those in Germany, France and Italy, have lent billions of dollars to Russian borrowers.

壳牌和道达尔等石油公司在俄罗斯有合资企业,而英国石油则夸耀自己是“俄罗斯最大的外国投资者之一”,与俄罗斯石油公司有联系。欧洲航空巨头空中客车公司从俄罗斯进口钛。欧洲的银行,尤其是德国、法国和意大利的银行,已经向俄罗斯债务方提供了数十亿美元的贷款。

“Severe sanctions that hurt Russia painfully and comprehensively have potential to do huge damage to European customers,” said Adam Tooze, director of the European Institute at Columbia University.

哥伦比亚大学欧洲研究所所长亚当·图兹表示:“对俄罗斯造成痛苦和全面伤害的严厉制裁有可能对欧洲客户造成巨大损害。”

Depending on what happens, the most significant effects on the global economy may manifest themselves only over the long run.

根据所发生的情况,对全球经济最重要的影响可能只有在长期内才会显现出来。

One result would be to push Russia to have closer economic ties to China. The two nations recently negotiated a 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through a new pipeline.

其中一个结果将是推动俄罗斯与中国建立更紧密的经济联系。两国最近就俄罗斯通过一条新管道向中国供应天然气的30年合同进行了谈判。

“Russia is likely to pivot all energy and commodity exports to China,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

高频经济首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格表示:“俄罗斯可能会将所有能源和大宗商品出口转向中国。”

The crisis is also contributing to a reassessment of the global economy’s structure and concerns about self-sufficiency. The pandemic has already highlighted the downsides of far-flung supply chains that rely on lean production.

这场危机也促成了对全球经济结构的重新评估和对自给自足的担忧。疫情已经凸显了依赖精益生产的远距离供应链的弊端。

Now Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is spurring discussions about expanding energy sources, which could further sideline Russia’s presence in the global economy.

如今,欧洲对俄罗斯天然气的依赖引发了有关扩大能源来源的讨论,这可能会进一步削弱俄罗斯在全球经济中的地位。

“In the longer term, it’s going to push Europe to diversify,” said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow working on international trade policy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. As for Russia, the real cost “would be corrosive over time and really making it much more difficult to do business with Russian entities and deterring investment.”

彼得森国际经济研究所国际贸易政策高级研究员杰弗里·肖特说:“长期来看,这将推动欧洲走向多元化。”至于俄罗斯,真正的成本“将随着时间的推移而恶化,真的会大大增加与俄罗斯实体做生意的难度,并阻碍投资。”
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